NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19SA

DAL

25-56

120139

62-19

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-0VegasSA -18.5

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Dallas Mavericks, 139–120.

SA -18.5 cashed (won by 19). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

38.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	25	14	5-8	2-3	2-2	-5	3	3
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	8	2	1-4	0-2	—	-9	1	1
C. FlaggF · #32	32	33	13-25	3-7	4-4	-8	6	5
M. ChristieG · #00	31	16	5-12	4-7	2-2	-8	1	2
R. NembhardG · #9	31	13	5-13	1-4	2-2	-5	1	7
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	25	4	2-4	0-1	—	-10	11	5
T. SmithF · #23	19	6	3-7	0-4	—	-12	2	1
M. CisseC · #30	19	7	3-5	—	1-5	-10	8	0
J. PoulakidasG · #1	30	12	4-11	4-10	—	-19	1	0
A. JohnsonG · #8	20	13	4-9	1-2	4-4	-9	1	2
Team		120	45-98	15-40	15-19		35	26
DNP: P.J. Washington, N. Marshall

DNP: P.J. Washington, N. Marshall

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	14	5-8	1-3	3-3	+15	7	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	40	14-23	2-7	10-11	+10	13	5
D. FoxG · #4	28	18	7-14	2-4	2-2	+11	1	10
D. VassellG · #24	27	5	2-7	1-4	—	+3	2	2
D. HarperG · #2	26	13	4-9	0-1	5-5	+15	4	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	28	15	6-9	2-4	1-1	+13	2	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	24	17	6-13	1-5	4-4	+8	6	2
H. IngramF · #55	6	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
C. BryantF · #11	25	12	4-5	3-3	1-1	+14	4	2
L. KornetC · #7	18	2	1-2	—	—	+10	7	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	6	3	1-2	1-1	—	-2	2	0
Team		139	50-92	13-32	26-27		48	30
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

SA wins series 4-0

Oct 23

SA125@

DAL92

Feb 6

SA135@

DAL123

Feb 7

DAL125@

SA138

Apr 11

DAL120@

SA139today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+11008%

SA-210095%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -18.5↗SpreadBet SA -18.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 6pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:00

DAL

C. Flagg

Game leader · 32 min30-point game

33 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

V. Wembanyama

Game leader · 26 min40-point game

40 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

SA beat DAL 139-120. V. Wembanyama led the way with 40 points and 13 rebounds. SA outscored the other side 40-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 12 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST

GS 42

SAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 27 REB · 24 AST

GS 83

Bench(6)

49 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 44

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	26	39	28	27	120
SA	37	31	40	31	139

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · SA won 3

Flagg 9

Wembanyama 16

Flagg 16

Wembanyama 8

Flagg 8

Champagnie 28

Poulakidas 9

Barnes 8

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

46%

45-98

54%

50-92

38%

15-40

3PT

41%

13-32

79%

15-19

96%

26-27

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 120·SA 139
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 120·SA 139
Q4·6.5
Mavericks defensive team rebound
DAL 120·SA 139
Q4·6.5
Keldon Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 120·SA 139
Q4·30.6
Ryan Nembhard makes driving layup (Dwight Powell assists)
·
DAL 120·SA 139
Q4·45.9
Jordan McLaughlin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)
· ·
DAL 118·SA 139
Q4·1:02
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
DAL 118·SA 136
Q4·1:05
Tyler Smith misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 118·SA 136
Q4·1:26
Harrison Barnes makes two point shot
DAL 118·SA 136
Q4·1:45
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
DAL 118·SA 134
Q4·1:48
Ryan Nembhard misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 118·SA 134
Q4·2:13
Keldon Johnson makes 6-foot two point shot
·
DAL 118·SA 134
Q4·2:34
Tyler Smith makes tip shot
DAL 118·SA 132
Q4·2:34
Tyler Smith offensive rebound
DAL 116·SA 132
Q4·2:35
Ryan Nembhard misses two point shot
DAL 116·SA 132
Q4·2:39
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
DAL 116·SA 132
Q4·2:43
Keldon Johnson misses 2-foot two point shot
·
DAL 116·SA 132
Q4·3:00
John Poulakidas makes 29-foot three pointer (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
DAL 116·SA 132
Q4·3:08
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·3:10
John Poulakidas blocks Keldon Johnson 's 5-foot pullup jump shot
· ·
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·3:22
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
·
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·3:27
Harrison Barnes misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·3:28
Jordan McLaughlin offensive rebound
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·3:30
Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·3:41
AJ Johnson makes 27-foot three point shot
·
DAL 113·SA 132
Q4·4:08
Keldon Johnson makes 4-foot two point shot
·
DAL 110·SA 132
Q4·4:29
AJ Johnson makes running dunk (Ryan Nembhard assists)
· ·
DAL 110·SA 130
Q4·4:32
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
DAL 108·SA 130
Q4·4:34
Jordan McLaughlin misses two point shot
DAL 108·SA 130
Q4·4:54
Ryan Nembhard makes running layup (Tyler Smith assists)
·
DAL 108·SA 130

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

45-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-92

FG %

15-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-32

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-27

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -18.5·O/U 236.5·DAL +1100/SA -2100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 7 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896
Devin VassellSA · G
DEFL2.583
Dylan HarperSA · G
DEFL2.583
Keldon JohnsonSA · F
TS%61.376

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
23.4± 13.6high

Rebounds

Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high
Moussa CisseDAL
7.8± 4.7high

Assists

Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Cooper FlaggDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
1.4± 1.1high
Naji MarshallDAL
1.4± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR