NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23MIA

MIA

42-39

140117

WSH

17-64

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesMIA wins series 4-0VegasMIA -15.5

MIA · top performer

Simone Fontecchio

F · #0

22.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Bilal Coulibaly

G · #0

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ WSH

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	23	11	3-6	2-4	3-5	+5	3	5
S. FontecchioF · #0	27	24	8-10	6-8	2-2	+3	4	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	38	20	7-14	3-6	3-3	+22	11	8
K. WareC · #7	22	12	5-7	2-4	—	-1	8	3
K. JakucionisG · #25	31	16	4-7	3-5	5-6	+22	5	4
Bench
M. GardnerF · #15	3	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #16	30	10	4-9	0-3	2-2	+23	4	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	36	23	10-14	3-4	—	+24	4	8
V. GoldinC · #50	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
T. KeelsG · #3	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. YoungG · #17	1	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	1
P. LarssonG · #9	27	24	8-14	1-3	7-8	+17	0	6
Team		140	49-82	20-37	22-26		40	37
DNP: N. Powell, D. Mitchell, T. Herro

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GillF · #16	35	10	4-6	—	2-3	-20	3	1
L. BlackF · #12	32	8	3-11	2-8	—	-11	2	3
J. ReeseF · #15	37	10	5-11	—	—	-11	6	3
B. CarringtonG · #7	34	30	11-15	6-7	2-2	-2	2	4
B. CoulibalyG · #0	22	25	9-16	2-3	5-5	+3	5	5
Bench
S. CooperG · #13	21	11	5-7	1-1	—	-19	1	7
J. WatkinsG · #5	31	7	2-9	1-4	2-4	-25	5	1
W. RileyG · #27	28	16	7-17	2-8	—	-30	3	2
Team		117	46-92	14-31	11-14		27	26
DNP: J. Champagnie, T. Vukcevic, J. Hardy, T. Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

49-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-92

FG %

20-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-31

22-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA wins series 4-0

Feb 8

MIA132@

WSH101

Mar 10

WSH129@

MIA150

Apr 4

WSH136@

MIA152

Apr 10

MIA140@

WSH117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

243.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA-160094%

WSH+90010%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -15.5↗SpreadBet MIA -15.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

243.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat WSH 140-117. S. Fontecchio led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. MIA outscored the other side 34-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST

GS 83

Bench(7)

57 PTS · 9 REB · 15 AST

GS 42

WSHstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 67

Bench(3)

34 PTS · 9 REB · 10 AST

GS 24

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	34	38	33	35	140
WSH	23	29	33	32	117

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · WSH won 0

Wiggins 8

Carrington 8

Adebayo 12

Coulibaly 13

Fontecchio 11

Carrington 13

Jr. 11

Black 12

MIA

WSH

Shooting comparison

MIA

WSH

60%

49-82

50%

46-92

54%

20-37

3PT

45%

14-31

85%

22-26

79%

11-14

Play-by-play · 433 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·0.1
shot clock turnover
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·22.2
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·24.1
Will Riley misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·35.7
Anthony Gill defensive rebound
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·39.3
Jahmir Young misses 14-foot jumper
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·51.8
Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 140·WSH 117
Q4·51.8
Myron Gardner enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
MIA 140·WSH 116
Q4·51.8
Anthony Gill makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 140·WSH 116
Q4·51.8
Pelle Larsson shooting foul
MIA 140·WSH 115
Q4·1:07
Keshad Johnson makes two point shot (Jahmir Young assists)
· ·
MIA 140·WSH 115
Q4·1:10
Will Riley bad pass turnover (Keshad Johnson steals)
· ·
MIA 138·WSH 115
Q4·1:21
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 138·WSH 115
Q4·1:21
Trevor Keels enters the game for Kasparas Jakucionis
·
MIA 137·WSH 115
Q4·1:21
Vladislav Goldin enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
MIA 137·WSH 115
Q4·1:21
Jahmir Young enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.
·
MIA 137·WSH 115
Q4·1:21
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 137·WSH 115
Q4·1:21
Sharife Cooper shooting foul
MIA 136·WSH 115
Q4·1:31
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIA 136·WSH 115
Q4·1:33
Will Riley misses 10-foot turnaround jump shot
MIA 136·WSH 115
Q4·1:53
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
·
MIA 136·WSH 115
Q4·2:11
Sharife Cooper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)
·
MIA 134·WSH 115
Q4·2:20
Pelle Larsson out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIA 134·WSH 112
Q4·2:34
Anthony Gill makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
MIA 134·WSH 112
Q4·2:46
Pelle Larsson makes 1-foot driving dunk
MIA 134·WSH 110
Q4·3:04
Will Riley makes driving layup
MIA 132·WSH 110
Q4·3:16
Heat Full timeout
MIA 132·WSH 108
Q4·3:16
Pelle Larsson personal foul
MIA 132·WSH 108
Q4·3:26
Jamir Watkins defensive goaltending violation
MIA 132·WSH 108

Betting line

MIA -15.5·O/U 243.5·MIA -1600/WSH +900

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 140–117. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -15.5 cashed (won by 23). Total cleared the 243.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high

Assists

Trae YoungWSH
8.1± 3.5medium
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

WSH

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

46.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Team pages

Miami HeatWashington Wizards

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR