PHX
44-37
LAL
52-29
Recap · NBA
os Angeles Lakers held off Phoenix Suns, 101–73. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LAL +2.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 43.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Royce O'Neale
F · #00
11
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
LAL · top performer
LeBron James
F · #23
28
Pts
6
Reb
12
Ast
NBA · Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 12 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 2-4 | -17 | 2 | 1 | |
| 29 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -39 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2-2 | — | 3-4 | -20 | 5 | 0 | |
| 13 | 8 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 3-3 | +5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | — | +6 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 11 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | |
| 21 | 8 | 3-4 | — | 2-4 | +3 | 10 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-6 | — | -9 | 3 | 2 | |
| 8 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -8 | 3 | 0 | |
| 21 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | — | -11 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 4 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -33 | 2 | 3 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-7 | — | -13 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 73 | 26-77 | 7-40 | 14-21 | 47 | 17 | ||
| DNP: J. Green | ||||||||
DNP: J. Green
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 28 | 10-16 | 2-2 | 6-9 | +27 | 6 | 12 | |
| 31 | 13 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | +28 | 2 | 3 | |
| 31 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +11 | 3 | 1 | |
| 30 | 10 | 4-8 | — | 2-2 | +19 | 5 | 0 | |
| 28 | 19 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 5-5 | +14 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | — | +6 | 7 | 1 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | +4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +5 | 5 | 7 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | +6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 101 | 35-69 | 8-20 | 23-30 | 35 | 27 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
51
17
Ast
27
Season series
PHX wins series 3-2
PHX125@LAL108LAL116@PHX114LAL108@PHX132LAL110@PHX113PHX73@LAL101todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHX -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
217.5
Defensive · -8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHX-13057%LAL+11048%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
217.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:01
PHXR. O'Neale
FGame leader · 22 min
11 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
LALL. James
FGame leader · 32 minDouble-double
28 PTS · 6 REB · 12 AST
How it ended
LAL beat PHX 101-73. L. James paced them with 28 PTS, 6 REB, 12 AST. LAL outscored the other side 20-9 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAL vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 45% of ptsStarters(5)
33 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST
GS 19
Bench(8)
40 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST
GS 20
LALstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 17 REB · 19 AST
GS 69
Bench(9)
29 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGrayson Allen · makes free throw 1 of 2
Royce O'Neale · makes 25-foot three pointer (Oso Ighodaro assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 24 | 24 | 16 | 9 | 73 |
| LAL | 33 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 101 |
Period scoring
PHX won 0 · LAL won 3
Q1
Williams 6
James 14
Q2
Brooks 8
Kennard 8
Q3
Coffey 5
Ayton 6
Q4
Maluach 4
Knecht 5
Shooting comparison
34%
26-77
FG
51%
35-69
18%
7-40
3PT
40%
8-20
67%
14-21
FT
77%
23-30
Play-by-play · 455 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 73·LAL 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 73·LAL 101
- Q4·19.8
Chris Manon makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 73·LAL 101
- Q4·19.8
Lakers offensive team rebound
PHX 73·LAL 100
- Q4·19.8
Chris Manon misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 73·LAL 100
- Q4·19.8
Koby Brea shooting foul
PHX 73·LAL 100
- Q4·41.9
Khaman Maluach makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Koby Brea assists)
·
PHX 73·LAL 100
- Q4·57.0
Dalton Knecht makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 100
- Q4·57.0
Dalton Knecht makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 99
- Q4·57.0
Rasheer Fleming shooting foul
PHX 71·LAL 98
- Q4·1:03
Jamaree Bouyea bad pass turnover (Chris Manon steals)
·
PHX 71·LAL 98
- Q4·1:09
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 98
- Q4·1:11
Nick Smith Jr. misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 98
- Q4·1:18
Rasheer Fleming bad pass turnover (Adou Thiero steals)
·
PHX 71·LAL 98
- Q4·1:35
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 98
- Q4·1:35
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 97
- Q4·1:35
Khaman Maluach shooting foul
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·1:47
Chris Manon enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·1:47
Adou Thiero enters the game for Bronny James
· ·
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·1:47
Lakers Full timeout
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·1:52
Jamaree Bouyea bad pass turnover (Bronny James steals)
· ·
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:02
Jamaree Bouyea offensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:07
CJ Huntley misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:13
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:15
Drew Timme misses 15-foot floating jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:26
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:31
Koby Brea misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:38
CJ Huntley offensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:43
Koby Brea misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 96
- Q4·2:59
Dalton Knecht makes 22-foot running jump shot (Marcus Smart assists)
·
PHX 71·LAL 96
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LAL
Home
26-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-69
34
FG %
51
7-40
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-20
14-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-30
17
Assists
27
23
Turnovers
11
Betting line
PHX -2.5·O/U 217.5·PHX -130/LAL +110
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Luke KennardLAL · GTS%68.998- LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.994
Dillon BrooksPHX · FUSG%28.693
Oso IghodaroPHX · FCONT792
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAL vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Devin BookerPHX24.6± 6.2high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Mark WilliamsPHX7.2± 2.3high
- Luka DoncicLAL7.1± 2.1high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
- Devin BookerPHX5.8± 2.3high
Blocks
- Mark WilliamsPHX1.0± 1.3high
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
- Jaxson HayesLAL0.8± 0.8high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Jordan GoodwinPHX1.8± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
PHX
league avg
LAL
53.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.0%
45.5%
FG%
47.0
▶49.9%
112.2
PPG
114.9
▶114.8
24.5
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.1