NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28LAL

PHX

44-37

73101

LAL

52-29

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesPHX wins series 3-2VegasPHX -2.5

PHX · top performer

Royce O'Neale

F · #00

10.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

31.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:01

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	21	12	5-14	0-4	2-4	-17	2	1
R. DunnF · #0	29	1	0-3	0-2	1-2	-39	2	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	20	7	2-2	—	3-4	-20	5	0
G. AllenG · #8	13	8	2-7	1-5	3-3	+5	4	1
C. GillespieG · #12	16	5	2-6	1-4	—	+6	5	3
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	22	11	4-10	2-7	1-2	0	7	3
O. IghodaroF · #11	21	8	3-4	—	2-4	+3	10	2
C. HuntleyF · #22	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	1	0
R. FlemingF · #20	24	3	1-6	1-6	—	-9	3	2
K. MaluachC · #10	8	4	2-3	—	—	-8	3	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	21	7	3-6	1-2	—	-11	2	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	27	4	1-7	0-2	2-2	-33	2	3
K. BreaG · #14	14	3	1-8	1-7	—	-13	1	1
Team		73	26-77	7-40	14-21		47	17
DNP: J. Green

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	32	28	10-16	2-2	6-9	+27	6	12
R. HachimuraF · #28	31	13	4-8	2-3	3-4	+28	2	3
J. LaRaviaF · #12	31	2	1-1	—	—	+11	3	1
D. AytonC · #5	30	10	4-8	—	2-2	+19	5	0
L. KennardG · #10	28	19	6-12	2-4	5-5	+14	1	3
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	12	2	1-3	0-1	0-2	+3	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	19	6	3-6	0-2	—	+6	7	1
D. TimmeF · #17	6	2	1-2	—	—	+6	1	0
D. KnechtF · #4	4	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+4	1	0
A. ThieroF · #1	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
M. SmartG · #36	18	6	2-5	0-2	2-2	+5	5	7
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	13	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	+6	2	0
B. JamesG · #9	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	+5	2	0
C. ManonG · #30	2	1	—	—	1-2	+3	0	0
Team		101	35-69	8-20	23-30		35	27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

26-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-69

FG %

7-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-20

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 3-2

Dec 2

PHX125@

LAL108

Dec 15

LAL116@

PHX114

Dec 24

LAL108@

PHX132

Feb 27

LAL110@

PHX113

Apr 11

PHX73@

LAL101today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-13057%

LAL+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat PHX 101-73. L. James paced them with 28 PTS, 6 REB, 12 AST. LAL outscored the other side 20-9 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 45% of pts

Starters(5)

33 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Bench(8)

40 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST

GS 20

LALstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 17 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(9)

29 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX2nd Quarter · 11:01 · 27-33

+10pp→ 34% WP

Grayson Allen · makes free throw 1 of 2

PHX2nd Quarter · 7:14 · 36-35

+6pp→ 49% WP

Royce O'Neale · makes 25-foot three pointer (Oso Ighodaro assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	24	24	16	9	73
LAL	33	24	24	20	101

Period scoring

PHX won 0 · LAL won 3

Williams 6

James 14

Brooks 8

Kennard 8

Coffey 5

Ayton 6

Maluach 4

Knecht 5

PHX

LAL

Shooting comparison

PHX

LAL

34%

26-77

51%

35-69

18%

7-40

3PT

40%

8-20

67%

14-21

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 73·LAL 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 73·LAL 101
Q4·19.8
Chris Manon makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 73·LAL 101
Q4·19.8
Lakers offensive team rebound
PHX 73·LAL 100
Q4·19.8
Chris Manon misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 73·LAL 100
Q4·19.8
Koby Brea shooting foul
PHX 73·LAL 100
Q4·41.9
Khaman Maluach makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Koby Brea assists)
·
PHX 73·LAL 100
Q4·57.0
Dalton Knecht makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 100
Q4·57.0
Dalton Knecht makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 99
Q4·57.0
Rasheer Fleming shooting foul
PHX 71·LAL 98
Q4·1:03
Jamaree Bouyea bad pass turnover (Chris Manon steals)
·
PHX 71·LAL 98
Q4·1:09
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 98
Q4·1:11
Nick Smith Jr. misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 98
Q4·1:18
Rasheer Fleming bad pass turnover (Adou Thiero steals)
·
PHX 71·LAL 98
Q4·1:35
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 98
Q4·1:35
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 71·LAL 97
Q4·1:35
Khaman Maluach shooting foul
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·1:47
Chris Manon enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·1:47
Adou Thiero enters the game for Bronny James
· ·
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·1:47
Lakers Full timeout
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·1:52
Jamaree Bouyea bad pass turnover (Bronny James steals)
· ·
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:02
Jamaree Bouyea offensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:07
CJ Huntley misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:13
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:15
Drew Timme misses 15-foot floating jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:26
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:31
Koby Brea misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:38
CJ Huntley offensive rebound
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:43
Koby Brea misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 71·LAL 96
Q4·2:59
Dalton Knecht makes 22-foot running jump shot (Marcus Smart assists)
·
PHX 71·LAL 96

Betting line

PHX -2.5·O/U 217.5·PHX -130/LAL +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Phoenix Suns, 101–73. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL +2.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 43.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 10 players in cohort

Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Collin GillespiePHX · G
TOUCHES59.385

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high
Kevon LooneyLAL
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Austin ReavesLAL
0.7± 1.0high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Ziaire WilliamsLAL
1.7± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

LAL

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

114.8

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Team pages

Phoenix SunsLos Angeles Lakers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR