NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17NY

TOR

45-36

95112

53-28

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesNY wins series 5-0VegasNY -6.5

TOR · top performer

Sandro Mamukelashvili

F · #54

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	16	8-15	0-2	0-4	-9	4	6
S. BarnesF · #4	34	15	6-13	0-1	3-3	-10	4	5
J. PoeltlC · #19	19	4	2-3	—	—	-14	3	1
J. SheadG · #23	27	5	2-7	1-3	—	-9	0	2
J. WalterG · #14	29	15	5-9	4-7	1-2	-20	2	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	25	17	5-9	3-6	4-6	-3	8	3
J. BattleF · #77	6	2	1-1	—	—	-10	0	1
J. MogboF · #2	17	6	2-2	—	2-2	-4	5	1
A.J. LawsonG · #0	22	5	1-5	1-4	2-2	+3	6	1
A. MartinG · #55	12	3	1-5	0-1	1-1	-7	0	2
G. DickG · #1	12	7	3-4	1-1	—	-2	0	1
Team		95	36-73	10-25	13-20		32	24
DNP: R. Barrett, G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	15	2	1-4	0-3	—	+9	5	3
K. TownsC · #32	30	22	8-12	1-3	5-5	+11	10	5
J. HartG · #3	30	3	0-2	0-1	3-4	+11	4	2
M. BridgesG · #25	33	13	5-10	2-6	1-1	+13	1	3
J. BrunsonG · #11	31	29	12-18	2-5	3-3	+4	3	2
Bench
T. Jemison IIIF · #50	3	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. SochanF · #20	6	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
P. DadietF · #4	4	2	0-2	0-2	2-2	0	1	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	11	3	0-2	0-2	3-4	+3	1	1
A. HukportiC · #55	13	8	4-4	—	—	+8	4	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	18	10	4-8	0-1	2-2	+3	1	4
L. ShametG · #44	28	8	3-7	2-5	—	+11	1	1
J. AlvaradoG · #5	18	12	4-6	1-3	3-6	+14	5	2
Team		112	41-75	8-31	22-27		37	24
DNP: D. Jones, K. McCullar Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

36-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-75

FG %

10-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-31

13-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY wins series 5-0

Nov 30

TOR94@

NY116

Dec 10

NY117@

TOR101

Jan 29

NY119@

TOR92

Mar 4

NY111@

TOR95

Apr 10

TOR95@

NY112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+22031%

NY-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -6.5↗SpreadBet NY -6.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat TOR 112-95. J. Brunson paced them with 29 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-15 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 13 REB · 15 AST

GS 36

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

NYstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 61

Bench(8)

43 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY2nd Quarter · 11:45 · 21-25

+6pp→ 74% WP

Landry Shamet · makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	21	15	28	31	95
NY	22	29	28	33	112

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NY won 3

Walter 8

Towns 7

Barnes 4

Alvarado 7

Ingram 6

Brunson 14

Barnes 7

Bridges 6

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

49%

36-73

55%

41-75

40%

10-25

3PT

26%

8-31

65%

13-20

81%

22-27

Play-by-play · 429 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·0.2
shot clock turnover
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·24.2
Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·27.1
Alijah Martin misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·34.8
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·37.3
Pacome Dadiet misses 28-foot three point jumper
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·50.1
Jonathan Mogbo makes layup (Jamison Battle assists)
·
TOR 95·NY 112
Q4·1:02
Jose Alvarado makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 93·NY 112
Q4·1:02
Jose Alvarado makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 93·NY 111
Q4·1:02
Gradey Dick personal foul
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:02
Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:05
A.J. Lawson misses running layup
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:09
Trey Jemison III lost ball turnover (A.J. Lawson steals)
·
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:22
Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:24
Gradey Dick misses 20-foot jumper
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:36
Pacome Dadiet makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 93·NY 110
Q4·1:36
Pacome Dadiet makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 93·NY 109
Q4·1:36
Gradey Dick shooting foul
TOR 93·NY 108
Q4·1:39
Alijah Martin bad pass turnover (Jeremy Sochan steals)
·
TOR 93·NY 108
Q4·1:50
Mohamed Diawara makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 93·NY 108
Q4·1:50
Knicks offensive team rebound
TOR 93·NY 107
Q4·1:50
Mohamed Diawara misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 93·NY 107
Q4·1:50
Jonathan Mogbo shooting foul
TOR 93·NY 107
Q4·1:52
Jeremy Sochan offensive rebound
TOR 93·NY 107
Q4·1:53
Mohamed Diawara misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 93·NY 107
Q4·2:19
Gradey Dick makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Alijah Martin assists)
·
TOR 93·NY 107
Q4·2:35
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 91·NY 107
Q4·2:37
Jose Alvarado misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 91·NY 107
Q4·2:37
Trey Jemison III enters the game for Ariel Hukporti
·
TOR 91·NY 107

Betting line

NY -6.5·O/U 218.5·TOR +220/NY -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Toronto Raptors, 112–95.

NY -6.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Mitchell RobinsonNY
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

116.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR