NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17MIL

BKN

20-61

108125

MIL

32-49

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasMIL -10.5

BKN · top performer

Malachi Smith

G · #18

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

AJ Green

G · #20

33.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 11:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. ScottF · #13	41	11	4-11	1-4	2-4	-21	5	2
E.J. LiddellF · #9	32	13	5-12	1-3	2-2	-6	6	4
M. SmithG · #18	43	19	7-11	5-7	—	-12	8	10
T. EtienneG · #10	32	23	6-12	6-12	5-5	-24	4	2
B. SarafG · #77	41	15	6-15	3-9	—	-31	3	3
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	34	13	5-9	1-1	2-2	+6	7	7
N. TraoreG · #88	16	14	5-14	1-9	3-3	+3	4	0
Team		108	38-84	18-45	14-16		37	28
DNP: D. Wolf, C. Johnson, N. Claxton, O. Agbaji, D. Powell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. PrinceF · #12	35	18	6-13	6-11	—	+18	10	5
O. DiengF · #21	37	12	5-12	0-4	2-4	+17	6	12
M. TurnerC · #3	27	13	6-11	1-5	0-1	+26	5	3
C. RyanG · #30	34	28	10-17	5-9	3-3	+21	5	3
A. GreenG · #20	41	35	11-18	11-16	2-2	+29	5	4
Bench
K. KuzmaF · #18	21	8	3-4	1-1	1-1	-8	1	5
J. SimsC · #00	30	11	4-4	—	3-5	-7	10	3
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	15	0	0-2	0-2	—	-11	2	1
Team		125	45-81	24-48	11-16		44	36
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, A. Antetokounmpo, G. Harris

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

38-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-81

FG %

18-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

24-48

14-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 30

BKN99@

MIL116

Dec 14

MIL82@

BKN127

Apr 7

MIL90@

BKN96

Apr 11

BKN108@

MIL125today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+38021%

MIL-50083%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -10.5↗SpreadBet MIL -10.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat BKN 125-108. A. Green led the way with 35 points and 5 rebounds. MIL outscored the other side 38-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 69

Bench(2)

27 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 25

MILstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 31 REB · 27 AST

GS 94

Bench(3)

19 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN1st Quarter · 11:05 · 0-3

+16pp→ 23% WP

Ousmane Dieng · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	24	30	30	24	108
MIL	38	28	33	26	125

Period scoring

BKN won 1 · MIL won 3

Etienne 15

Ryan 18

Liddell 7

Kuzma 8

Scott 7

de 51

Smith 5

Green 17

BKN

MIL

Shooting comparison

BKN

MIL

45%

38-84

56%

45-81

40%

18-45

3PT

50%

24-48

88%

14-16

69%

11-16

Play-by-play · 410 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 108·MIL 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 108·MIL 125
Q4·1.6
shot clock turnover
BKN 108·MIL 125
Q4·25.6
AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 108·MIL 125
Q4·25.6
AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 108·MIL 124
Q4·25.6
Jalen Wilson personal foul
BKN 108·MIL 123
Q4·29.9
Trevon Scott personal foul
BKN 108·MIL 123
Q4·35.4
Tyson Etienne makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 108·MIL 123
Q4·35.4
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Taurean Prince
·
BKN 107·MIL 123
Q4·35.4
Tyson Etienne makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 107·MIL 123
Q4·35.4
Jericho Sims shooting foul
BKN 106·MIL 123
Q4·40.4
AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)
·
BKN 106·MIL 123
Q4·50.6
Ben Saraf makes 26-foot three pointer
BKN 106·MIL 120
Q4·1:03
Malachi Smith defensive rebound
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:06
Cormac Ryan misses 18-foot two point shot
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:18
Taurean Prince defensive rebound
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:18
Ben Saraf misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:31
Trevon Scott defensive rebound
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:31
Taurean Prince misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:45
Jalen Wilson makes 15-foot jumper (Malachi Smith assists)
·
BKN 103·MIL 120
Q4·1:48
Trevon Scott offensive rebound
BKN 101·MIL 120
Q4·1:52
Ben Saraf misses driving floating jump shot
BKN 101·MIL 120
Q4·2:06
Cormac Ryan makes two point shot
BKN 101·MIL 120
Q4·2:07
Cormac Ryan offensive rebound
BKN 101·MIL 118
Q4·2:08
Ben Saraf blocks Cormac Ryan 's 13-foot driving layup
·
BKN 101·MIL 118
Q4·2:13
Taurean Prince defensive rebound
BKN 101·MIL 118
Q4·2:16
Trevon Scott misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 101·MIL 118
Q4·2:27
Tyson Etienne defensive rebound
BKN 101·MIL 118
Q4·2:30
AJ Green misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
BKN 101·MIL 118
Q4·2:46
Taurean Prince defensive rebound
BKN 101·MIL 118

Betting line

MIL -10.5·O/U 218.5·BKN +380/MIL -500

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Brooklyn Nets, 125–108.

MIL -10.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Cormac RyanMIL · G
TS%69.298
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Nolan TraoreBKN · G
DRIVES9.886
Ben SarafBKN · G
DRIVES9.786

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Jericho SimsMIL
7.5± 4.7high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high
Tyler HerroMIL
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Noah ClowneyBKN
0.6± 0.7high
Caris LeVertMIL
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

MIL

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

110.6

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.5

Team pages

Brooklyn NetsMilwaukee Bucks

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR