NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26BOS

26-55

118144

BOS

55-26

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -18.5

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off New Orleans Pelicans, 144–118. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -18.5 cashed (won by 26). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 34.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NO · top performer

Derik Queen

C · #22

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Sam Hauser

F · #30

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LooneyF · #55	25	0	0-2	0-2	—	-29	6	3
D. QueenC · #22	39	25	9-14	0-2	7-9	-24	11	4
J. PooleG · #3	29	11	3-10	2-5	3-5	-40	3	3
M. PeavyG · #14	37	2	1-7	0-3	—	-5	2	1
J. FearsG · #0	44	36	13-29	3-10	7-11	-32	3	6
Bench
J. OduroC · #13	24	12	5-8	0-2	2-3	+6	12	1
H. DickinsonC · #4	5	2	1-1	—	—	-11	0	0
T. AlexanderG · #23	15	10	4-10	2-4	—	+2	2	1
J. HawkinsG · #24	23	20	8-15	2-4	2-2	+3	5	3
Team		118	44-96	9-32	21-30		44	22
DNP: D. Jordan, B. McGowens

DNP: D. Jordan, B. McGowens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	28	24	8-13	8-12	—	+21	6	4
N. QuetaC · #88	13	7	3-3	1-1	—	+13	10	2
D. WhiteG · #9	16	9	3-9	3-9	—	+18	2	5
J. BrownG · #7	29	23	8-13	2-3	5-7	+24	3	1
J. WalshG · #27	22	6	2-4	2-4	—	+17	2	2
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	19	14	5-7	3-5	1-2	+15	4	5
L. GarzaC · #52	16	14	6-13	0-3	2-3	-2	6	2
P. PritchardG · #11	30	21	7-14	5-9	2-2	+29	3	10
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	12	7	3-7	1-4	—	-8	0	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	25	9	3-6	2-5	1-1	+5	2	2
M. ShulgaG · #44	6	0	—	—	—	-13	2	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	25	10	4-7	2-4	—	+11	4	1
Team		144	52-96	29-59	11-15		44	35
DNP: A. Williams, J. Tonje

DNP: A. Williams, J. Tonje

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Oct 28

BOS122@

NO90

Apr 10

NO118@

BOS144today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+11008%

BOS-210095%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -18.5↗SpreadBet BOS -18.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNO ↔ BOS

D. Queen

Game leader · 39 minDouble-double

25 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

BOS

S. Hauser

Game leader · 28 min

24 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

BOS beat NO 144-118. S. Hauser led with 24 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. BOS outscored the other side 44-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 55

Bench(4)

44 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST

GS 32

BOSstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 57

Bench(7)

75 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST

GS 69

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	25	26	31	36	118
BOS	44	38	34	28	144

Period scoring

NO won 1 · BOS won 3

Queen 6

Brown 15

Fears 11

Scheierman 23

Queen 12

Hauser 15

Hawkins 13

Garza 9

BOS

Shooting comparison

BOS

46%

44-96

54%

52-96

28%

9-32

3PT

49%

29-59

70%

21-30

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 118·BOS 144
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 118·BOS 144
Q4·2.7
shot clock turnover
NO 118·BOS 144
Q4·26.8
Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 118·BOS 144
Q4·26.8
Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 117·BOS 144
Q4·26.8
Hugo Gonzalez personal foul
NO 116·BOS 144
Q4·33.5
Josh Oduro defensive rebound
NO 116·BOS 144
Q4·35.7
Baylor Scheierman misses 25-foot running jump shot
NO 116·BOS 144
Q4·38.6
Luka Garza defensive rebound
NO 116·BOS 144
Q4·40.3
Luka Garza blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 2-foot driving layup
·
NO 116·BOS 144
Q4·46.9
Luka Garza makes 1-foot driving dunk
NO 116·BOS 144
Q4·1:06
Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 2
·
NO 116·BOS 142
Q4·1:06
Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NO 115·BOS 142
Q4·1:06
Max Shulga shooting foul
NO 114·BOS 142
Q4·1:07
Jordan Hawkins offensive rebound
·
NO 114·BOS 142
Q4·1:09
Derik Queen misses two point shot
NO 114·BOS 142
Q4·1:20
Hugo Gonzalez makes 26-foot three pointer (Luka Garza assists)
·
NO 114·BOS 142
Q4·1:29
Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup (Jordan Hawkins assists)
· ·
NO 114·BOS 139
Q4·1:38
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·1:39
Ron Harper Jr. misses 6-foot pullup jump shot
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·1:54
Max Shulga defensive rebound
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·1:55
Jeremiah Fears misses 25-foot three point jumper
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·2:06
Pelicans defensive team rebound
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·2:07
Luka Garza misses 27-foot three point jumper
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·2:18
Josh Oduro makes tip shot
NO 112·BOS 139
Q4·2:18
Josh Oduro offensive rebound
NO 110·BOS 139
Q4·2:20
Jeremiah Fears misses running layup
NO 110·BOS 139
Q4·2:27
Micah Peavy defensive rebound
NO 110·BOS 139
Q4·2:28
Derik Queen blocks Luka Garza 's 2-foot two point shot
·
NO 110·BOS 139
Q4·2:29
Luka Garza offensive rebound
NO 110·BOS 139

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

44-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-96

FG %

9-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

29-59

21-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

BOS -18.5·O/U 227.5·NO +1100/BOS -2100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Payton PritchardBOS · G
TOUCHES65.688
Nikola VucevicBOS · C
CONT686

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownBOS
26.6± 6.3high
Jayson TatumBOS
22.9± 3.5high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Neemias QuetaBOS
1.0± 0.8high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

BOS

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

25.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR