NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22ATL

CLE

51-30

102124

ATL

46-35

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasATL -8.5

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 124–102. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -8.5 cashed (won by 22). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

Jaylon Tyson

G · #20

13.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	17	3	1-1	1-1	—	-18	3	0
E. MobleyC · #4	22	10	5-12	—	—	-16	6	1
J. HardenG · #1	25	20	6-13	2-6	6-6	-34	0	5
M. StrusG · #2	23	2	1-9	0-4	—	-30	4	0
J. TysonG · #20	24	15	7-15	0-5	1-2	-10	4	3
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	16	4	2-2	—	—	-17	1	0
O. SarrF · #33	10	3	1-1	1-1	—	+11	5	3
T. EnarunaF · #21	12	7	3-4	0-1	1-1	+9	1	1
N. TomlinF · #35	19	4	2-4	—	—	+10	5	1
R. MinixF · #12	8	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+8	0	0
D. SchroderG · #8	16	7	2-8	1-2	2-2	-9	2	4
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	17	6	2-3	—	2-2	0	5	3
K. EllisG · #14	19	2	1-4	0-2	—	-23	3	0
T. ProctorG · #24	12	15	5-8	2-4	3-3	+9	1	4
Team		102	39-86	7-27	17-18		40	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	27	2	1-5	0-2	—	+25	5	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	25	18	6-12	2-3	4-5	+25	9	2
C. McCollumG · #3	24	29	11-16	6-8	1-2	+22	4	4
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	32	18	7-13	3-8	1-1	+29	1	1
D. DanielsG · #5	30	13	6-10	0-1	1-2	+36	10	12
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	9	8	2-5	2-4	2-5	-14	0	1
J. KumingaF · #0	23	15	4-12	0-6	7-8	+11	5	1
M. GueyeF · #18	12	5	2-4	1-3	—	+11	3	1
A. NewellF · #14	8	2	1-2	0-1	—	-8	2	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	19	4	1-7	0-3	2-2	-13	4	1
T. BradleyC · #13	9	7	3-3	1-1	—	-14	2	0
G. VincentG · #4	14	3	1-3	1-3	—	+8	1	0
K. WallaceG · #2	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	0	2
Team		124	45-93	16-44	18-25		46	27
DNP: C. Koloko, B. Hield

DNP: C. Koloko, B. Hield

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 2

ATL109@

CLE117

Nov 29

CLE123@

ATL130

Apr 8

ATL116@

CLE122

Apr 10

CLE102@

ATL124today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+28026%

ATL-35578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:09

CLE

J. Tyson

Game leader · 24 min

15 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

ATL

C. McCollum

Game leader · 24 min

29 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

ATL beat CLE 124-102. C. McCollum paced them with 29 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 35-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 28

Bench(9)

52 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 47

ATLstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 74

Bench(8)

44 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	22	26	17	37	102
ATL	27	34	35	28	124

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · ATL won 3

Harden 9

McCollum 11

Harden 7

McCollum 14

Tyson 7

Kuminga 20

Proctor 15

Kispert 8

CLE

ATL

Shooting comparison

CLE

ATL

45%

39-86

48%

45-93

26%

7-27

3PT

36%

16-44

94%

17-18

72%

18-25

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·3.8
shot clock turnover
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·25.6
Tony Bradley defensive rebound
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·28.5
Asa Newell blocks Nae'Qwan Tomlin 's 2-foot driving layup
·
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·35.8
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·36.8
Zaccharie Risacher blocks Tyrese Proctor 's 5-foot driving layup
·
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·45.2
Olivier Sarr defensive rebound
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·47.2
Corey Kispert misses free throw 3 of 3
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·47.2
Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 3
CLE 102·ATL 124
Q4·47.2
Hawks offensive team rebound
CLE 102·ATL 123
Q4·47.2
Corey Kispert misses free throw 1 of 3
CLE 102·ATL 123
Q4·47.2
Tyrese Proctor shooting foul
CLE 102·ATL 123
Q4·55.2
Riley Minix makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 102·ATL 123
Q4·55.2
Riley Minix makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 101·ATL 123
Q4·55.2
Zaccharie Risacher shooting foul
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:02
Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:05
Zaccharie Risacher misses 22-foot running jump shot
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:12
Tyrese Proctor bad pass turnover (Asa Newell steals)
·
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:27
Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:31
Corey Kispert misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:31
Corey Kispert makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 100·ATL 123
Q4·1:31
(01:31) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Cavaliers] charged with a timeout
CLE 100·ATL 122
Q4·1:31
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 100·ATL 122
Q4·1:31
Olivier Sarr shooting foul
CLE 100·ATL 122
Q4·1:45
Tristan Enaruna makes 2-foot two point shot (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
CLE 100·ATL 122
Q4·1:57
Olivier Sarr defensive rebound
CLE 98·ATL 122
Q4·2:00
Keaton Wallace misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 98·ATL 122
Q4·2:14
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes driving layup
CLE 98·ATL 122
Q4·2:28
Tony Bradley makes running dunk (Asa Newell assists)
·
CLE 96·ATL 122

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

39-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-93

FG %

7-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-44

17-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-25

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -8.5·O/U 233.5·CLE +280/ATL -355

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.395
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

ATL

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

117.4

PPG

114.9

117.2

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR