GS
37-44
SAC
22-59
Recap · NBA
acramento Kings held off Golden State Warriors, 124–118.
SAC +10.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Brandin Podziemski
G · #2
30
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
SAC · top performer
Devin Carter
G · #22
29
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -4 | 4 | 6 | |
| 27 | 7 | 3-10 | 1-3 | — | +1 | 3 | 6 | |
| 26 | 11 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 2-3 | +11 | 7 | 2 | |
| 27 | 11 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-3 | -4 | 3 | 5 | |
| 32 | 30 | 9-15 | 3-8 | 9-10 | +3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | +4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 18 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-4 | — | -10 | 0 | 2 | |
| 15 | 6 | 1-3 | — | 4-4 | -6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 15 | 10 | 5-6 | — | — | -11 | 3 | 0 | |
| 28 | 17 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 4-4 | -14 | 4 | 3 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 118 | 39-81 | 14-36 | 26-28 | 36 | 30 | ||
| DNP: Se. Curry | ||||||||
DNP: Se. Curry
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 5 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 1-2 | -12 | 6 | 4 | |
| 39 | 23 | 9-12 | 2-4 | 3-5 | +20 | 9 | 4 | |
| 37 | 20 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 3-3 | +18 | 9 | 3 | |
| 35 | 29 | 11-18 | 6-11 | 1-4 | +16 | 9 | 4 | |
| 38 | 20 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 8-9 | +2 | 6 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 3-3 | -10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 24 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-2 | +3 | 7 | 1 | |
| 10 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-4 | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 19 | 6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 6-6 | -10 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 124 | 41-89 | 17-44 | 25-34 | 49 | 25 | ||
| DNP: D. Eubanks, D. Hunter, K. Murray | ||||||||
DNP: D. Eubanks, D. Hunter, K. Murray
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
46
30
Ast
25
Season series
Series tied 2-2
GS116@SAC121SAC103@GS137SAC105@GS110GS118@SAC124todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
228.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS-50083%SAC+38021%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
228.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 28pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:33
GSB. Podziemski
GGame leader · 32 min30-point game
30 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
SACD. Carter
GGame leader · 35 min
29 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
SAC beat GS 124-118. D. Carter paced them with 29 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 38-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SAC vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 20 REB · 20 AST
GS 53
Bench(7)
52 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST
GS 48
SACstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
97 PTS · 39 REB · 21 AST
GS 80
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMaxime Raynaud · shooting foul
Brandin Podziemski · traveling turnover
Malevy Leons · enters the game for Brandin Podziemski
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 27 | 24 | 38 | 29 | 118 |
| SAC | 32 | 31 | 19 | 42 | 124 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · SAC won 3
Q1
Podziemski 6
Monk 11
Q2
Melton 17
Clifford 10
Q3
Podziemski 10
Carter 9
Q4
Podziemski 14
Plowden 12
Shooting comparison
48%
39-81
FG
46%
41-89
39%
14-36
3PT
39%
17-44
93%
26-28
FT
74%
25-34
Play-by-play · 505 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 118·SAC 124
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 118·SAC 124
- Q4·4.5
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 118·SAC 124
- Q4·4.5
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 117·SAC 124
- Q4·4.5
Brandin Podziemski misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 117·SAC 124
+0.8pp
- Q4·4.5
Dylan Cardwell shooting foul
GS 117·SAC 124
−0.8pp
- Q4·9.9
Maxime Raynaud makes 2-foot dunk (Nique Clifford assists)
·
GS 117·SAC 124
+2pp
- Q4·16.1
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
GS 117·SAC 122
+1pp
- Q4·18.3
Brandin Podziemski misses two point shot
GS 117·SAC 122
+5pp
- Q4·25.9
Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 117·SAC 122
−4pp
- Q4·25.9
Nique Clifford makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 117·SAC 121
+0.9pp
- Q4·25.9
Gui Santos personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 117·SAC 120
+10pp
- Q4·44.8
Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 117·SAC 120
−9pp
- Q4·46.9
Warriors Full timeout
GS 114·SAC 120
- Q4·46.9
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 114·SAC 120
−2pp
- Q4·49.2
Pat Spencer misses 28-foot three point jumper
GS 114·SAC 120
+3pp
- Q4·54.7
Dylan Cardwell makes 2-foot layup (Nique Clifford assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 114·SAC 120
+6pp
- Q4·1:06
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
GS 114·SAC 118
+2pp
- Q4·1:11
Pat Spencer misses 29-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 114·SAC 118
+6pp
- Q4·1:25
Daeqwon Plowden makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 114·SAC 118
−6pp
- Q4·1:25
Daeqwon Plowden makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 114·SAC 117
+2pp
- Q4·1:25
Pat Spencer personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 114·SAC 116
+12pp
- Q4·1:26
Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound
GS 114·SAC 116
+3pp
- Q4·1:28
Gui Santos misses running layupBIG MOMENT
GS 114·SAC 116
+8pp
- Q4·1:33
Devin Carter bad pass turnover (Malevy Leons steals)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 114·SAC 116
−10pp
- Q4·1:46
Charles Bassey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 114·SAC 116
+8pp
- Q4·1:46
Charles Bassey makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 113·SAC 116
−2pp
- Q4·1:46
Maxime Raynaud shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 112·SAC 116
−13pp
- Q4·1:58
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
GS 112·SAC 116
−5pp
- Q4·1:58
Charles Bassey shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 112·SAC 115
+15pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
SAC
Home
39-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-89
48
FG %
46
14-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-44
26-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-34
30
Assists
25
16
Turnovers
16
Betting line
GS -10.5·O/U 228.5·GS -500/SAC +380
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SAC vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC18.0± 12.6high
Rebounds
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Maxime RaynaudSAC8.3± 2.4high
- Precious AchiuwaSAC8.2± 4.6high
Assists
- Russell WestbrookSAC7.5± 2.7high
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Keegan MurraySAC1.4± 0.8high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
- Stephen CurryGS1.3± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
GS
league avg
SAC
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
46.2%
FG%
47.0
▶46.7%
114.5
PPG
114.9
111.0
28.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.5
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.7