NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20DEN

OKC

64-17

107127

DEN

53-28

NBAFri, Apr 10FinalSeriesOKC wins series 3-1VegasDEN -2.5

OKC · top performer

Branden Carlson

C · #15

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Jonas Valanciunas

C · #17

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 50.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarlsonC · #15	37	23	8-18	3-10	4-4	-21	12	5
L. DortG · #5	20	5	2-7	1-4	—	-8	3	1
A. WigginsG · #21	25	13	5-11	2-6	1-2	-2	3	3
J. McCainG · #3	25	15	6-11	3-8	—	-4	1	2
N. TopicG · #44	39	14	6-12	2-3	—	-17	2	11
Bench
B. BarnhizerF · #23	33	14	5-10	1-3	3-4	-15	9	2
P. SandfortF · #14	28	8	3-8	1-4	1-2	-11	4	0
K. WilliamsG · #34	32	15	7-22	1-6	—	-22	12	1
Team		107	42-99	14-44	9-12		46	25
DNP: Jay. Williams, I. Joe, C. Wallace, A. Mitchell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ValanciunasC · #17	32	23	9-14	1-2	4-4	+16	17	4
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	28	13	4-12	3-9	2-3	+5	1	3
T. JonesG · #5	23	9	3-6	3-3	—	+7	4	3
B. BrownG · #11	26	10	4-9	2-3	—	+7	8	6
J. StrawtherG · #3	34	22	8-17	4-7	2-2	+10	4	3
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	14	5	2-4	1-2	—	-1	6	2
D. Holmes IIF · #14	2	2	—	—	2-2	+5	0	0
D. RoddyF · #45	26	21	8-12	3-6	2-2	+14	2	0
J. PickettG · #24	30	13	5-11	3-6	—	+17	4	4
K. SimpsonG · #25	7	2	1-1	—	—	+6	2	0
C. JonesG · #1	20	7	3-7	1-5	—	+14	1	3
Team		127	47-93	21-43	12-13		49	28
DNP: C. Johnson, C. Braun

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

42-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-93

FG %

14-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

21-43

9-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 3-1

Feb 2

OKC121@

DEN111

Feb 28

DEN121@

OKC127

Mar 9

DEN126@

OKC129

Apr 11

OKC107@

DEN127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC+12045%

DEN-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -2.5↗SpreadBet DEN -2.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat OKC 127-107. J. Valanciunas led with 23 PTS, 17 REB, 4 AST. DEN outscored the other side 37-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 21 REB · 22 AST

GS 59

Bench(3)

37 PTS · 25 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

DENstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 34 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

50 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN2nd Quarter · 6:58 · 39-45

+10pp→ 54% WP

Nuggets · offensive team rebound

OKC3rd Quarter · 50.0 · 84-87

+11pp→ 52% WP

Branden Carlson · makes free throw 1 of 2

DEN4th Quarter · 11:43 · 85-92

+9pp→ 72% WP

David Roddy · makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Pickett assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	27	24	34	22	107
DEN	34	25	31	37	127

Period scoring

OKC won 1 · DEN won 3

Topic 7

Valanciunas 9

McCain 7

Strawther 10

Carlson 9

Jr. 11

Barnhizer 8

Roddy 16

OKC

DEN

Shooting comparison

OKC

DEN

42%

42-99

51%

47-93

32%

14-44

3PT

49%

21-43

75%

9-12

92%

12-13

Play-by-play · 435 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 107·DEN 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 107·DEN 127
Q4·8.6
shot clock turnover
OKC 107·DEN 127
Q4·31.8
Nikola Topic bad pass turnover (David Roddy steals)
·
OKC 107·DEN 127
Q4·37.4
KJ Simpson makes driving layup
OKC 107·DEN 127
Q4·47.9
Brooks Barnhizer makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 107·DEN 125
Q4·47.9
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 106·DEN 125
Q4·47.9
Brooks Barnhizer misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 106·DEN 125
Q4·47.9
Curtis Jones personal foul
·
OKC 106·DEN 125
Q4·51.8
David Roddy makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 106·DEN 125
Q4·51.8
David Roddy makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 106·DEN 124
Q4·51.8
Nikola Topic shooting foul
OKC 106·DEN 123
Q4·56.9
Nikola Topic bad pass turnover (DaRon Holmes II steals)
·
OKC 106·DEN 123
Q4·1:03
Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 106·DEN 123
Q4·1:23
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 106·DEN 120
Q4·1:23
Payton Sandfort makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 106·DEN 120
Q4·1:23
Payton Sandfort misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 105·DEN 120
Q4·1:23
David Roddy shooting foul
OKC 105·DEN 120
Q4·1:29
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 105·DEN 120
Q4·1:32
Curtis Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
OKC 105·DEN 120
Q4·1:48
Branden Carlson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Nikola Topic assists)
·
OKC 105·DEN 120
Q4·2:01
DaRon Holmes II makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 103·DEN 120
Q4·2:01
DaRon Holmes II makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 103·DEN 119
Q4·2:01
Payton Sandfort shooting foul
OKC 103·DEN 118
Q4·2:08
KJ Simpson enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas
·
OKC 103·DEN 118
Q4·2:08
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Julian Strawther
·
OKC 103·DEN 118
Q4·2:08
Brooks Barnhizer personal foul
OKC 103·DEN 118
Q4·2:19
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
OKC 103·DEN 118
Q4·2:20
Branden Carlson misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 103·DEN 118
Q4·2:41
David Roddy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)
·
OKC 103·DEN 118

Betting line

DEN -2.5·O/U 223.5·OKC +120/DEN -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 127–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DEN -2.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort

Jonas ValanciunasDEN · C
USG%26.790
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN · G
TS%62.484
Branden CarlsonOKC · C
CONT5.177
Bruce BrownDEN · G
DEFL272

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Peyton WatsonDEN
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

DEN

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

118.5

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR