New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+2NYM

NYM

81-76

CHC

88-69

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

35,729 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.5%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CHC

.684

OPS

.720

▶

.755

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

4.06

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 9 · CHC 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	0	9
CHC	2	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.268	5	1	2	3	1	0	0
J. SotoLF	.267	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.273	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
B. NimmoRF	.261	5	1	2	3	1	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.235	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.249	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.258	3	2	1	2	1	1	1
L. AcunaSS	.238	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.063	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	9	11	9	3	2	7

Player

.268

.267

.273

.261

.235

.253

.278

.249

.258

.238

.063

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	1.1	5	5	5	2	1	42
H. BrazobanRP	2.2	1	1	0	0	2	33
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	25
G. SotoRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	0	0	2	0	31
B. RaleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
E. DiazRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	27
Team	9.0	9	7	6	5	11	174

Player

1.1

2.2

1.0

0.2

1.0

0.1

2.0

Team

9.0

174

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.302	5	4	3	1	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.241	4	0	1	2	0	1	2
S. SuzukiRF	.242	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.252	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Santana1B	.105	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.245	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Turner1B	.223	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. ShawRF	.224	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.246	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Busch1B	.254	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	9	6	0	5	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HortonSP	3.0	2	1	1	0	2	29
M. SorokaSP	1.2	3	4	0	1	1	33
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	14
D. PomeranzRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	15
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	18
J. WicksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	11	9	5	2	7	131

Team

NYM

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.