Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+1MIA

MIA

77-80

PHI

92-65

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

38,041 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
61.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.6%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.1± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PHI

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.305

4.37

Runs / G

4.50

4.39

3.99

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.17

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 6 · PHI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	1	6
PHI	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.250	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.233	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. MarseeCF	.311	5	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.250	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.269	5	1	3	1	1	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.281	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.248	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. ConineRF	.275	5	2	1	1	1	0	2
D. MyersCF	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.250	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.277	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		41	6	10	5	2	2	11

Player

.250

.233

.311

.250

.269

.281

.248

.275

.235

.300

.250

.241

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	4.0	5	3	3	1	3	67
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
V. BellozoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
C. FaucherRP	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	4
M. PetersenRP	1.2	1	2	1	1	1	19
J. SimpsonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	29
Team	11.0	9	5	4	3	9	175

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

1.2

1.1

Team

11.0

175

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BaderCF	.325	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.241	4	1	1	1	1	1	3
A. Bohm3B	.281	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.281	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.217	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.206	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.255	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.236	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
G. StubbsC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.256	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.212	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		41	5	9	5	2	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	7.0	3	0	0	1	6	91
D. RobertsonRP	0.2	3	2	1	0	1	23
T. BanksRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. DuranRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	1	2	1	1	0	24
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	12
Team	11.0	10	6	3	2	11	170

Team

MIA

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.