MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIA

MIA

77-80

PHI

92-65

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

38,041 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
61.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.2%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.7%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Alec BohmPHI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PHI

.707

OPS

◀

.715

.681

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.296

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.11

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.04

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 6 · PHI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	1	6
PHI	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
O. LopezSS	.250	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.233	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. MarseeCF	.311	5	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.250	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.269	5	1	3	1	1	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.281	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.248	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. ConineLF	.275	5	2	1	1	1	0	2
D. MyersCF	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Navarreto1B	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.250	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.277	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		41	6	10	5	2	2	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.250

.233

.311

.250

.269

.281

.248

.275

.235

.300

.250

.241

.277

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. CabreraSP	4.0	5	3	3	1	3	67
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
V. BellozoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
C. FaucherRP	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	4
M. PetersenRP	1.2	1	2	1	1	1	19
J. SimpsonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	29
Team	11.0	9	5	4	3	9	175

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

1.2

1.1

Team

11.0

175

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. BaderCF	.325	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.241	4	1	1	1	1	1	3
A. Bohm3B	.281	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.281	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.217	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. Wilson3B	.206	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.255	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.236	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
G. StubbsC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.256	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.212	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		41	5	9	5	2	3	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SanchezSP	7.0	3	0	0	1	6	91
D. RobertsonRP	0.2	3	2	1	0	1	23
T. BanksRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. DuranRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	1	2	1	1	0	24
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	12
Team	11.0	10	6	3	2	11	170

Team

MIA

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.