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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PIT
PIT

PIT

68-89

4
2
CIN

CIN

80-77

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
29,847 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · CIN 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0400000004
CIN0200000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz

SS

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT68-89
4
2
CIN80-77
PIT68-89·CIN80-77
PIT

PIT

68-89

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44112101
SPRINT28.483
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.483
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33000000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000000
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
1-44110002
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
2-44121001
SPRINT27.662
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
1-44111001
R. FloresR. Flores★C
1-33010001
Team8-3434484107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
4.2222371
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
0.1000000
H. BarcoH. BarcoRP
1.0200000
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000020
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0100000
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000110
Team9.05224101
CIN

CIN

80-77

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.992
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-22000000
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22100021
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
3-33132110
SPRINT2872
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000002
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-33000002
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-22000001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22000001
M. AndujarM. AndujarDH
1-22010000
SPRINT26.530
T. StephensonT. StephensonC
0-11000001
S. StewartS. Stewart1B
0-11000000
Team5-29292521410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
5.1744031
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.2000030
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0100010
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000000
Team9.0844071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.9 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.9 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Barco
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      26%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      58%·88.0 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      50%·84.2 mph·100% whiff

CIN

  • B. Singer
    90 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      54%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      1%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Phillips
    20 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      60%·85.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      40%·99.2 mph·25% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • ST
      43%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      62%·97.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      38%·89.6 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 4-2

Apr 11PITPIT3@CINCIN5
Apr 12PITPIT2@CINCIN5
Apr 13PITPIT0@CINCIN4
Sep 23PITPIT4@CINCIN2today
Sep 24PITPIT4@CINCIN3
Sep 25PITPIT1@CINCIN2

Season series

CIN leads series 6-5

Apr 11PITPIT3@CINCIN5
Apr 12PITPIT2@CINCIN5
Apr 13PITPIT0@CINCIN4
May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8
Sep 23PITPIT4@CINCIN2today
Sep 24PITPIT4@CINCIN3
Sep 25PITPIT1@CINCIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 2nd Inning

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

CINCIN
E. De La Cruz

E. De La Cruz

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H

How it ended

PIT beat CIN 4-2. Cruz's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+19pp→ 71% WP

Cruz · homered to left (368 feet), Canario scored.

CINBottom 2nd Inning · 4-2
+18pp→ 51% WP

De La Cruz · homered to right (415 feet), Steer scored.

PITTop 8th Inning · 4-2
+14pp→ 89% WP

Triolo · doubled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0400000004
CIN0200000002

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

4

Runs

2

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

14

TB

8

1

HR

1

0

BB

4

7

K

10

12

LOB

12

Win probability

CIN vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

4
2

Inn 2

Cruz 2

Cruz 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
CIN

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  3. B9

    McLain grounded into double play, third to second to first, De La Cruz out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

    −10pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  9. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  10. B9

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  11. B9

    De La Cruz walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

    +6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  16. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  17. B9

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  18. B9

    Steer struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

    −5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  22. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  23. B9

    Santana relieved Mattson

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  26. T9

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  27. T9

    Canario grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 4·CIN 2

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 2, 25sim 97
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    234
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    265
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs