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FINAL+2PIT
PIT
68-89
42
CIN
80-77
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
29,847 attended
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.3%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
59.1%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.24 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 105 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Paul SkenesPIT7.2± 2.1high
- Hunter GreeneCIN6.6± 4.7low
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 2.5high
Hits
- Brandon LowePIT1.4± 1.1high
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.1± 1.0high
- Jake MangumPIT1.1± 0.6high
Total bases
- Brandon LowePIT2.4± 1.9high
- Jose TrevinoCIN2.0± 3.2high
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Sal StewartCIN1.0± 1.4high
- Elly De La CruzCIN0.6± 0.8high
- Jose TrevinoCIN0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Hunter GreeneCIN4.2± 4.1low
- Braxton AshcraftPIT3.0± 2.4high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.9± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PIT
league avg
CIN
.748
OPS
◀
.720
.707
.334
OBP
◀
.318
.310
5.08
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.17
4.30
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.43
1.33
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.41
9.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.1
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
PIT wins
PIT 4 · CIN 2 (by 2)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CIN +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
