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Live · 4
  • MLBBot 1
    ATL 0@CIN 0
    +5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@STL 0
    -12.2pphigh
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    LAA 14@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
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    LA 41@CON 43
    +21.8pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4ATH
HOU

HOU

84-73

1
5
ATH

ATH

74-83

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
9,465 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

HOU 1 · ATH 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
ATH100120015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    180
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    73
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    74
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    72
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    74
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    195
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesATH wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Houston Astros, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU84-73
1
5
ATH74-83
HOU84-73·ATH74-83
HOU

HOU

84-73

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-22000020
SPRINT27.251
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44010000
SPRINT25.513
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-33000011
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-33000002
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-11001001
SPRINT29.395
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-22000001
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
0-11000000
Team3-2828131036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
4.2643140
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.1100110
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0100010
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0111110
Team8.0954370
ATH

ATH

74-83

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010000
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000010
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-22221020
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44010001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-33011000
SPRINT27.969
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
0-33001001
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-44110002
Team9-3131594037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
5.0311230
T. FergusonT. FergusonRP
2.0000020
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000100
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0000010
Team9.0311360

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • S. Okert
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      67%·80.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·90.8 mph·0% whiff

ATH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

9

1

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 4-3

Jun 17HOUHOU1@ATHATH3
Jun 18HOUHOU13@ATHATH3
Jun 19HOUHOU11@ATHATH4
Jun 20HOUHOU4@ATHATH6
Sep 24HOUHOU1@ATHATH5today
Sep 25HOUHOU0@ATHATH6
Sep 25HOUHOU11@ATHATH5

Season series

ATH leads series 7-4

May 28ATHATH1@HOUHOU11
May 28ATHATH3@HOUHOU5
Jun 17HOUHOU1@ATHATH3
Jun 18HOUHOU13@ATHATH3
Jun 19HOUHOU11@ATHATH4
Jun 20HOUHOU4@ATHATH6
Jul 25ATHATH5@HOUHOU2
Jul 26ATHATH15@HOUHOU3
Jul 26ATHATH5@HOUHOU1
Jul 27ATHATH7@HOUHOU1
Sep 24HOUHOU1@ATHATH5today
Sep 25HOUHOU0@ATHATH6
Sep 25HOUHOU11@ATHATH5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
J. Wilson

J. Wilson

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat HOU 5-1.

Win probability

ATH vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 65% WP

Kurtz · scored on error, Rooker safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Javier.

ATHBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 66% WP

Hernaiz · reached on infield single to shortstop, Wilson scored.

ATHBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 80% WP

Soderstrom · doubled to center, B. Harris scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
ATH10012001—5

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · ATH won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Kurtz 1

1
0

Inn 2

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Hernaiz 1

0
2

Inn 5

Soderstrom 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Cortes 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
ATH

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  2. T9

    Meyers struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  6. T9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Jake Meyers

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  7. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  8. T9

    Diaz grounded out to first.

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  11. T9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Yainer Diaz

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  12. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  13. T9

    Walker lined out to left.

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

    +0.9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  18. T9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  19. T9

    Kelly relieved Sterner

    ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  22. B8

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  23. B8

    B. Harris struck out swinging.

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  29. B8

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Brett Harris

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

  30. B8

    · ·

    HOU 1·ATH 5

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

1

Runs

5

3

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

3

TB

13

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

6

K

7

10

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.2%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.