Houston Astros vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+4ATH

HOU

84-73

ATH

74-83

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

9,465 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
53.2%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.8± 2.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

ATH

.738

OPS

◀

.720

.322

OBP

.318

.320

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.35

4.60

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.36

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

HOU 1 · ATH 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ATH	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.282	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
I. Paredes3B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.234	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. ColeLF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.240	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.246	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.197	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	3	1	0	3	6

Player

.263

.282

.254

.234

.256

.294

.267

.240

.246

.197

.263

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JavierSP	4.2	6	4	3	1	4	79
J. MurrayRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	26
S. OkertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	19
Team	8.0	9	5	4	3	7	135

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.291	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
S. LangeliersC	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.278	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WilsonSS	.318	2	2	2	1	0	2	0
L. ButlerRF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. HernaizSS	.229	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.314	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. Harris3B	.283	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team		31	5	9	4	0	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP	5.0	3	1	1	2	3	81
T. FergusonRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
M. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	3	1	1	3	6	131

Team

HOU

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.