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Live · 8
  • MLBBot 5
    MIN 7@PIT 7
    +3.5pphigh
  • MLBTop 6
    BOS 1@CLE 1
    -11.7pppeak
  • MLBEnd 6
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -38.3ppmedium
  • MLBTop 5
    MIL 2@HOU 3
    +35.9pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    SD 3@WSH 1
    -46.2pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.3pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAA 6@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    MIA 0@NYM 3
    +49.5pplow
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FINAL+6BAL
TB

TB

76-81

0
6
BAL

BAL

74-83

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
15,267 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 0 · BAL 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000000
BAL201012006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson

LF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB76-81
0
6
BAL74-83
TB76-81·BAL74-83
TB

TB

76-81

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33000000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-33000001
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-22000000
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-33000000
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-33000001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-33000002
BB. Seymour★1B
0-33000000
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-11000000
SPRINT26.225
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
0-11000001
Team2-3030020016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
3.0333130
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000020
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
4.0433221
Team8.0766371
BAL

BAL

74-83

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-33100010
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
2-33121001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-22012010
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-44001002
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-44000000
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-44000001
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33100002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
2-44222101
SPRINT28.175
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
2-22120010
SPRINT2872
Team7-2929676137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. KremerD. Kremer★SP
6.1100040
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
0.2100000
C. SelbyC. SelbyRP
1.0000000
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.0000120
Team9.0200160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • I. Seymour
    89 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      33%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·82.5 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·81.8 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Pepiot
    61 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      49%·96.5 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      18%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      47%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      20%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.4 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    97 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      31%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      26%·81.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      11%·85.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.9 mph·40% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      56%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      31%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Selby
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      27%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Castillo
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      57%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

7

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6today
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6

Season series

BAL leads series 6-5

Jun 16BALBAL1@TBTB7
Jun 17BALBAL5@TBTB1
Jun 18BALBAL8@TBTB12
Jun 19BALBAL4@TBTB1
Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Jul 18BALBAL1@TBTB11
Jul 19BALBAL3@TBTB4
Jul 20BALBAL5@TBTB3
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6today
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TBTB
C. Simpson

C. Simpson

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
C. Mayo

C. Mayo

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

BAL beat TB 6-0.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 65% WP

Westburg · doubled to left, Holliday to third.

BALBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 81% WP

Henderson · singled to center, Mayo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000000
BAL20101200—6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

0

Runs

6

2

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

2

TB

11

0

HR

1

1

BB

3

6

K

7

10

LOB

11

Win probability

BAL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TB won 0 · BAL won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Westburg 1

0
2

Inn 6

Cowser 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
BAL

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  2. T9

    J. Lowe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  6. T9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  7. T9

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  8. T9

    Gray walked.

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  15. T9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Tristan Gray

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  16. T9

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  17. T9

    Palacios struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  23. T9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Richie Palacios

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  24. T9

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  25. T9

    Fortes grounded out to third.

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  28. T9

    Yaramil Hiraldo pitches to Nick Fortes

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  29. T9

    Hiraldo relieved Selby

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

  30. T9

    Fortes hit for Díaz

    ·

    TB 0·BAL 6

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 98
    231
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 98
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    212
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    285
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs