MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4KC

79-78

LAA

70-87

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

30,861 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
45.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.2%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.3%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Michael MasseyKC
1.1± 1.1high
Vinnie PasquantinoKC
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Trey ManciniLAA
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAA

.692

OPS

.715

▶

.704

.315

OBP

.319

.316

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.43

4.45

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.66

1.39

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 8 · LAA 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	8
LAA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Garcia3B	.288	4	3	3	1	0	1	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.293	5	1	2	2	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.269	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. PerezC	.242	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.229	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
R. GrichukRF	.226	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	.266	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.289	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.207	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		40	8	15	7	0	4	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.288

.293

.269

.242

.229

.226

.266

.289

.292

.207

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. RagansSP	5.0	3	2	2	1	10	72
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
S. LongRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	0	24
Team	9.0	5	4	3	3	13	133

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. TroutCF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. Schanuel1B	.268	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
T. WardLF	.228	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. AdellRF	.237	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.217	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Peraza2B	.165	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Moore2B	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. GuzmanSS	.138	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. TeodosioLF	.213	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		31	4	5	3	2	3	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. AldegheriSP	4.2	7	3	3	2	3	94
R. ZeferjahnRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BachmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20
B. BurkeRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	19
J. UrenaRP	2.0	4	3	3	1	0	36
Team	9.0	15	8	8	4	7	170

Team

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.