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Live · 6
  • MLBTop 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
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    -5.5ppmedium
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    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -5.6ppmedium
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    KC 0@TEX 0
    -5.9ppmedium
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    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CLE
DET

DET

85-72

2
5
CLE

CLE

85-72

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
29,571 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 2 · CLE 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0010010002
CLE000003205

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Detroit Tigers, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Daniel Schneemann

Daniel Schneemann

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET85-72
2
5
CLE85-72
DET85-72·CLE85-72
DET

DET

85-72

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000003
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-44010003
SPRINT26.735
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33000013
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44121101
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000013
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.941
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-33011002
SPRINT27.969
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-22000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team5-32322521219
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
6.0431380
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.2011120
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
0.1211000
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2100000
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
0.1000000
Team8.07534100
CLE

CLE

85-72

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44220001
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-22110000
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33111010
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-33000002
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33001011
SPRINT26.530
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33010002
J. NoelJ. Noel★RF
0-33000012
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000002
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-22100010
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
1-11012000
SPRINT27.457
G. ValeraG. ValeraLF
0-11000000
P. HalpinP. HalpinCF
1-11010000
Team7-29295740410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
6.04222121
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000020
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0100030
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000020
Team9.05222191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    95 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      32%·99.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      9%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FS
      75%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      93%·88.3 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      43%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FS
      60%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.6 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    91 pitches·44% CSW
    • CU
      25%·82.6 mph·54% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.0 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.3 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    19 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      42%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      32%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      26%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    10 pitches·70% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Smith
    9 pitches·89% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      44%·86.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5today
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Season series

CLE leads series 7-4

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5today
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 6th Inning

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

CLECLE
D. Schneemann

D. Schneemann

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher12-K game

6.0 IP · 12 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 5-2.

Win probability

CLE vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 78% WP

Greene · homered to right (367 feet).

CLEBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 58% WP

Ram · írez reached on infield single to third, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 2-5
+13pp→ 94% WP

Schneemann · singled to left, Hedges scored and Kwan scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0010010002
CLE00000320—5

Period scoring

DET won 1 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
3

Inn 6

Greene 1

Ram 1

0
2

Inn 7

Schneemann 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
CLE

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  2. T9

    McKinstry lined out to third.

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  6. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Zach McKinstry

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  7. T9

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  8. T9

    Dingler struck out looking.

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

    +0.9pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  12. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Dillon Dingler

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  13. T9

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  14. T9

    Greene struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

    +2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  18. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  19. T9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 2·CLE 5

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 2·CLE 5

  22. B8

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  23. B8

    Noel flied out to right.

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  29. B8

    Rafael Montero pitches to Jhonkensy Noel

    · ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

  30. B8

    R. Montero relieved Hurter

    ·

    DET 2·CLE 5

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

5

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

10

TB

9

1

HR

0

2

BB

4

19

K

10

10

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 16 players in cohort
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    60.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 1, 25sim 98
    61
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    303
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    61
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    305
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    296
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 2, 25sim 96
    66
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs