Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+3CLE

DET

85-72

CLE

85-72

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

29,571 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.4± 1.5low
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.2± 1.2high
Steven KwanCLE
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.4± 3.3low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.3± 4.4low
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.9± 2.3low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Slade CecconiCLE
2.4± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.680

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.312

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.96

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.82

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.27

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 2 · CLE 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. CarpenterRF	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
S. Torkelson1B	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
R. GreeneLF	.261	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
D. DinglerC	.276	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
Z. McKinstry2B	.260	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.248	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
T. SweeneySS	.195	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Ibanez2B	.232	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	5	2	1	2	19

Player

.216

.259

.255

.241

.261

.276

.260

.248

.195

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	6.0	4	3	1	3	8	95
T. KahnleRP	0.2	0	1	1	1	2	14
K. FinneganRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	16
B. HurterRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	7
R. MonteroRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	8.0	7	5	3	4	10	137

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.277	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.228	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.282	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
D. FryRF	.171	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Arias3B	.222	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
K. Manzardo1B	.236	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. NoelRF	.155	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. RocchioSS	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.147	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.213	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		29	5	7	4	0	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	6.0	4	2	2	2	12	91
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	19
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	19	129

Team

DET

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.