Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+3MIN

MIN

68-89

TEX

79-78

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

24,674 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
65.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.2%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.2± 1.3high
Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high
Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

TEX

.726

OPS

.720

.719

.318

OBP

.318

4.68

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.31

1.39

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 4 · TEX 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
TEX	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.263	5	1	0	1	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.290	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.262	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
L. Keaschall2B	.302	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.237	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. McCuskerLF	.238	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Lee3B	.240	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.223	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.179	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
E. Julien2B	.208	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
R. Fitzgerald3B	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.163	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		35	4	9	4	0	7	7

Player

.263

.290

.262

.302

.237

.238

.240

.223

.179

.208

.222

.163

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	7.0	4	1	1	0	6	90
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	4	1	1	0	8	110

Player

Z. MatthewsSP

7.0

K. FunderburkRP

1.0

C. SandsRP

1.0

Team

9.0

110

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.182	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.241	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.212	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Freeman3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. HeimC	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. HelmanCF	.241	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MooreCF	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	4	1	1	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. CorbinSP	3.2	5	2	2	2	2	65
J. WebbRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	18
H. MilnerRP	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	16
C. WinnRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	34
D. CoulombeRP	1.1	1	0	0	2	1	31
C. MartinRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	20
Team	9.0	9	4	4	7	7	184

Team

MIN

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.