MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

STL

78-80

77-81

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

37,012 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.1%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Logan WebbSF
5.3± 1.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low

Hits

Blaze JordanSTL
1.7± 0.8low
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Blaze JordanSTL
3.3± 4.3low
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.6high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Blaze JordanSTL
1.3± 2.1low
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

.723

OPS

.717

.725

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.15

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.52

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 9 · SF 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	9
SF	0	0	5	0	2	1	0	0	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Donovan3B	.287	5	1	4	1	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.283	4	2	2	3	1	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.294	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.238	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.238	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. SaggeseLF	.259	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. CrooksC	.083	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.217	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.214	2	2	1	0	0	2	1
J. FerminLF	.315	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.173	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	9	15	8	2	3	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.287

.283

.294

.238

.238

.259

.083

.217

.214

.315

.173

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. PallanteSP	2.2	3	5	2	2	4	66
J. KingRP	1.0	3	0	0	0	0	17
J. AlcalaRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	3	27
C. RoycroftRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	28
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. RomeroRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	16
R. O'BrienRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	9.0	11	8	5	2	10	171

Player

2.2

1.0

1.1

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

171

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.259	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
R. Devers1B	.234	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. AdamesSS	.226	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.232	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
B. EldridgeDH	.050	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. LeeRF	.261	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.224	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.268	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
D. GilbertCF	.202	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. McCrayCF	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Flores1B	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	8	11	6	1	2	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. WebbSP	6.0	8	3	3	2	5	97
J. LucchesiRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	27
S. BivensRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	14
J. PegueroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
R. WalkerRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	27
Team	9.0	15	9	9	3	8	172

Team

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.