Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 5, 2026

LAD

69-45

PregameWed, 2:20 PM EDTMLB.TV, MLB Net

CHC

65-49

ATS/CHC -1.5O/U/9.5ML/CHC-113

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

CHC +2.1 vs LAD -1.8 margin

CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 0.0 · +9.5

CHC no-vig %

52.7%

open 53.3% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Eric Lauer

SP · #33

6-5

W-L

4.50

ERA

1.19

WHIP

88.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEAW(6-5)6.0 IP0 ER4 K

@PHIW(5-5)5.1 IP3 ER5 K

vsCOL-6.0 IP3 ER3 K

Home starter

Shota Imanaga

SP · #18

7-9

W-L

3.67

ERA

1.07

WHIP

119

127.2

Last 3 starts

vsNYYL(7-9)6.2 IP2 ER6 K

@PITW(7-8)6.0 IP0 ER4 K

vsMINW(6-8)7.0 IP0 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9.5

Money+106 / -113

Model edge

Win prob44% / 56%

LeanHome · 6pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesCHC lead series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take CHC on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-113Bet CHC ML↗-113Bet CHC ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9.5Bet the total↗O/U 9.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

CHC vs LAD.

CHC is 6-4 recently; LAD is 3-7.

56.4%

model · CHC win prob

Recent form

CHC6–4+2.1
LAD3–7-1.8

Situational

CHC1d restB2B
LAD1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; LAD has 2.

Model angle

+4.2ppon CHC

CHC's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp
▲Recent form+1.8pp
▲Model confidence+1.4pp

Players to watch

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.1.
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Justin Wrobleski · 5.3 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.8.
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2strikeouts · ±1.6
Shota Imanaga · 5.2 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.4.

Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2

CHC is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-03LAD @ CHC5–10
2026-08-04LAD @ CHC1–5

Line move

open -126→-123toward LAD

The market has moved 0.6pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.5%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like CHC.

CHC's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.

+4.2

pp edge · CHC

-1.12

CLV pp

2.2u · medium

on CHC

57.2%

±5.0pp band

2.21u medium — +4.1pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.0pp

+0.8pp post-cal

Kelly

8.8%

2.2% sized

Decimal

1.89

+4.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.2pp · CHC over LAD

▲
Recent form70% conf
CHC is 3-2 over its last 5; LAD is 0-5.
+1.8pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
CHC grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+1.4pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
LAD is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CHC has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.3pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-113

Open no-vig

53.3%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.2pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

CHC

★ best

-113DraftKings

edge +4.2pp · implied 52.2%

Book	LAD	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+106	-113★	+4.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high
Aaron CivaleCHC
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CHC

.769

OPS

◀

.720

.754

.339

OBP

.318

.339

5.07

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.13

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.06

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

The One modelLean

Wed, Aug 5

LAD

Dodgers

84-59

vs56.4%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

78-60

LAD 43.6%win prob56.4% CHC

CHC 1568 · LAD 1553Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take CHC on the model side.

CHC vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like CHC.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.