• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+7SD
MIL

MIL

95-63

0
7
SD

SD

87-71

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,089 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

MIL 0 · SD 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
SD420000017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.4± 2.7low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 0.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    44.6%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    223
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 95
    84
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 95
    220
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    83
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    83
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 93
    228
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Milwaukee Brewers, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Blake Perkins

Blake Perkins

CF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL95-63
0
7
SD87-71
MIL95-63·SD87-71
MIL

MIL

95-63

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-44000001
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33000011
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-33000001
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.790
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-44000000
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-11000010
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.586
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT28.790
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000000
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins1B
0-11000001
Team4-3131040025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ZimmermannB. Zimmermann★RP
6.0765212
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.0111001
Team8.0876213
SD

SD

87-71

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-33222110
SPRINT26.632
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33100010
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-44124100
SPRINT26.735
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
2-44121100
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
1-44010000
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000000
M. McCoyM. McCoy★2B
0-33100000
Team8-3333787321
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP
7.0100230
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0200020
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.0100000
Team9.0400250

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

0

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Sep 23MILMIL4@SDSD5
Sep 24MILMIL0@SDSD7today
Sep 24MILMIL3@SDSD1

Season series

SD leads series 4-1

Jun 7SDSD2@MILMIL0
Jun 7SDSD3@MILMIL4
Jun 8SDSD1@MILMIL0
Sep 23MILMIL4@SDSD5
Sep 24MILMIL0@SDSD7today
Sep 24MILMIL3@SDSD1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MILMIL
B. Perkins

B. Perkins

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

B. Zimmermann

B. Zimmermann

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

SDSD
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat MIL 7-0. O'Hearn's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

SD vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 68% WP

Arraez · singled to center.

SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-4
+18pp→ 90% WP

O'Hearn · homered to right (366 feet), Arraez scored, Sheets scored and Laureano scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
SD42000001—7

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · SD won 3

0
4

Inn 1

O'Hearn 4

0
2

Inn 2

Arraez 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Iglesias 1

0

Inn 9

MIL
SD

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  2. T9

    Durbin grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  6. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Caleb Durbin

    · ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  7. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  8. T9

    Frelick singled to center.

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  12. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  13. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  14. T9

    Jansen flied out to right.

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  20. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Danny Jansen

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  21. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  22. T9

    Turang flied out to center.

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  27. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Brice Turang

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  28. T9

    Matsui relieved Peralta

    ·

    MIL 0·SD 7

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 0·SD 7

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 0·SD 7

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

0

Runs

7

4

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

4

TB

17

0

HR

3

2

BB

2

5

K

1

9

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872