Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+7SD

MIL

95-63

87-71

Petco Park · San Diego, California

44,089 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
44.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.0%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.7%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.0± 4.3medium

Hits

Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.9high
Ty FranceSD
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.5medium
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Dustin MayMIL
2.3± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.735

OPS

◀

.720

.696

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.312

4.97

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

3.47

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

MIL 0 · SD 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SD	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioLF	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Turang2B	.284	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. ContrerasC	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.233	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. PerkinsCF	.230	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.232	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. JansenC	.207	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	0	4	0	0	2	5

Player

.266

.270

.284

.262

.291

.262

.233

.230

.232

.207

.237

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ZimmermannRP	6.0	7	6	5	2	1	91
T. MyersRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	27
Team	8.0	8	7	6	2	1	118

Player

B. ZimmermannRP

6.0

T. MyersRP

2.0

Team

8.0

118

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.288	3	2	2	2	1	1	0
X. BogaertsSS	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.254	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. LaureanoLF	.271	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.262	4	1	2	4	1	0	0
J. Iglesias2B	.232	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.352	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.150	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	8	7	3	2	1

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	7.0	1	0	0	2	3	98
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	18
Y. MatsuiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	4	0	0	2	5	131

Team

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.