Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+1ATL

WSH

64-94

ATL

75-83

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

37,322 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
63.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Tyler MahleATL
4.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.0± 2.7low
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 1.1high
Austin RileyATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

ATL

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.733

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.89

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.66

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

WSH 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
ATL	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.224	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
J. WoodRF	.255	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
C. AbramsSS	.259	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.213	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. AdamsC	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. House3B	.236	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. YoungCF	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BellDH	.233	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. DeJong3B	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	6	2	1	5	10

Player

.224

.255

.259

.290

.253

.213

.188

.236

.232

.233

.235

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. LordRP	6.0	4	2	2	1	4	96
K. PilkingtonRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	11
O. RibaltaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	17
J. FernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	8.0	6	3	3	2	7	137

Player

6.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ProfarLF	.257	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Olson1B	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.285	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. KimSS	.292	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.246	3	2	2	2	2	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Wisely2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.233	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	3	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. WaldrepSP	6.0	5	1	1	4	5	92
J. PayampsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
D. LeeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	18
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	10
Team	9.0	6	2	2	5	10	133

Team

WSH

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.