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FINAL+1ATL
WSH

WSH

64-94

2
3
ATL

ATL

75-83

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
37,322 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

WSH 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0010000102
ATL000011103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    92
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    94
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    204
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    94
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    95
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 95
    91
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Washington Nationals, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

3.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH64-94
2
3
ATL75-83
WSH64-94·ATL75-83
WSH

WSH

64-94

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-33100013
SPRINT29.899
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-33121110
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.395
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000000
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-33000010
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000003
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-22010010
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44010002
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell IIICF
0-11000000
Team6-31312621510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
6.0422142
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.1211011
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
0.2000100
J. FernandezJ. FernandezRP
1.0000020
Team8.0633273
ATL

ATL

75-83

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-33010010
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000000
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44111102
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-33222201
SPRINT27.148
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000002
B. WiselyB. Wisely★2B
0-11000010
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000001
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
1-11010000
SPRINT30.499+
Team6-3030363327
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. WaldrepH. Waldrep★SP
6.0511450
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
1.0000020
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0111021
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000110
Team9.06225101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • B. Lord
    96 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Fernandez
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      54%·86.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      46%·99.2 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.3 mph·100% whiff

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      35%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      22%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      15%·87.4 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      14%·84.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      13%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      1%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • ST
      62%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3today
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Season series

ATL leads series 9-3

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3today
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 3-2.

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 64% WP

Harris II · homered to right center (444 feet).

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 80% WP

Acu · ña Jr. homered to right center (433 feet).

WSHTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+11pp→ 19% WP

Wood · homered to right center (416 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0010000102
ATL00001110—3

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ATL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

II 1

0
1

Inn 6

Acu 1

0
1

Inn 7

II 1

1
0

Inn 8

Wood 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
ATL

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  2. T9

    Young struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

    +5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  6. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  7. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  8. T9

    Hassell III flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

    +8pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  11. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Robert Hassell III

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  12. T9

    Hassell III hit for House

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  13. T9

    DeJong ran for Bell

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  14. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  15. T9

    Bell walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

    −7pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  20. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Josh Bell

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  21. T9

    Bell hit for Adams

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  22. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  23. T9

    Crews flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

    +5pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  25. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Dylan Crews

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  26. T9

    Iglesias relieved Lee

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  29. B8

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

  30. B8

    Kim grounded out to third.

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

3

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

15

1

HR

3

5

BB

2

10

K

7

9

LOB

8

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483