HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
MLBBot 8
TB 4@COL 0
-29.9pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 2-1 so far (MLB 2-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over WSH
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Povich (BAL): 6.0 IP · 7 K in a win over LAA
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Torrens (NYM): 3 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over CLE
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Reinstated RHP Brad Lord from the 15-day IL (Aug 5)
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Reinstated LHP Robbie Ray from the IL (Aug 5)
TRANSACTION · MLBPirates: Reinstated RHP Chris Devenski from the 60-day IL and LHP Evan Sisk from the 15-d…
MLBBot 8
TB 4@COL 0
-29.9pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 2-1 so far (MLB 2-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over WSH
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Povich (BAL): 6.0 IP · 7 K in a win over LAA
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Torrens (NYM): 3 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over CLE
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Reinstated RHP Brad Lord from the 15-day IL (Aug 5)
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Reinstated LHP Robbie Ray from the IL (Aug 5)
TRANSACTION · MLBPirates: Reinstated RHP Chris Devenski from the 60-day IL and LHP Evan Sisk from the 15-d…
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BOS
BOS

BOS

86-71

4
1
TOR

TOR

90-67

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,927 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    54.4%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.5± 2.7high
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.0± 2.4medium
  • Ranger SuarezBOS
    5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    2.7± 2.5high
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS
    2.0± 2.7high
  • George SpringerTOR
    2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 1.3high
  • George SpringerTOR
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Andruw MonasterioBOS
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonTOR
    3.5± 2.7medium
  • Max ScherzerTOR
    3.4± 3.9low
  • Shane BieberTOR
    2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

BOS

league avg

TOR

TOR

.717

OPS

◀

.720

.679

.317

OBP

◀

.318

.302

4.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.90

3.52

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.06

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 4 · TOR 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0100030004
TOR0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 63-34
63%Last 30 · 264-158
Receipts →

Team pages

Boston Red SoxatToronto Blue Jays

Elsewhere in the MLB

  • Rays0@Orioles6Final
  • Tigers2@Guardians5Final
  • Pirates4@Reds2Final
  • Marlins6@Phillies5Final/11
  • White Sox2@Yankees3Final
  • Nationals2@Braves3Final
  • Mets9@Cubs7Final
  • Twins4@Rangers1Final
  • Royals8@Angels4Final
  • Rockies3@Mariners4Final
  • Dodgers4@Diamondbacks5Final
  • Brewers0@Padres7Final
  • Cardinals9@Giants8Final
  • Astros1@Athletics5Final
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/Seriestied 3-3
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. GausmanTOR−53.4pp
  2. 2N. LoweBOS+39.2pp
  3. 3R. GonzalezBOS+22.6pp

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

Game flowBOS ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 6th Inning

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF
.2585000003
T. StorySS
.2645010001
A. Bregman3B
.2754000001
M. YoshidaDH
.2564120000
R. GonzalezDH
.3083110012
C. RafaelaCF
.2444010002
N. LoweDH
.2862122020
W. AbreuRF
.2513110000
C. NarvaezC
.2404012000
- R. RefsnyderDH
.2731000000
- N. EatonOF
.2990000000
Team35494039

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GiolitoSP
4.23114398
J. WilsonRP
1.10001125
G. WhitlockRP
1.0000029
J. SlatenRP
1.00000013
A. ChapmanRP
1.00000015
Team9.031156160

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH
.3065010001
D. VarshoCF
.2314000002
V. Guerrero Jr.1B
.2973000011
A. BargerRF
.2444000000
A. KirkC
.2833000010
N. LukesRF
.2512110020
D. SchneiderLF
.2403010002
A. GimenezSS
.2082001010
E. Clement2B
.2774000000
- J. LoperfidoLF
.3331000000
- I. Kiner-Falefa2B
.2311000000
Team32131056

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP
5.29441792
L. VarlandRP
1.10000011
B. FisherRP
0.10002114
M. FluhartyRP
1.10000115
T. NanceRP
0.1000004
Team9.094439136

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    98 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      21%·80.4 mph·31% whiff
    • CU
      1%·78.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·98.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      7%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    92 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      37%·84.4 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.5 mph·67% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.2 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      64%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • KC
      55%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      27%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      75%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

4

Runs

1

2

Errors

1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

1

9

Hits

3

2

Errors

1

14

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

9

K

6

15

LOB

17

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1today
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6

Season series

TOR leads series 7-4

Apr 7TORTOR6@BOSBOS2
Apr 8TORTOR6@BOSBOS1
Apr 9TORTOR2@BOSBOS1
Apr 10TORTOR3@BOSBOS4
Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Jun 27TORTOR9@BOSBOS0
Jun 28TORTOR1@BOSBOS15
Jun 29TORTOR5@BOSBOS3
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1today
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6

How it ended

BOS beat TOR 4-1. N. Lowe led the way — 2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS. Narv's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 51% WP

Lowe · singled to center, Yoshida scored.

TORBottom 4th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Lukes · doubled to right.

BOSTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+23pp→ 86% WP

Narv · áez doubled to center, Abreu scored and Lowe scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0100030004
TOR0001000001

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Narv 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
TOR

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Springer flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to George Springer

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  8. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  9. B9

    Clement fouled out to first.

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  12. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  13. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  14. B9

    Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Chapman relieved Slaten

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  27. B9

    Kiner-Falefa hit for Giménez

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  30. T9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page