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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BOS
BOS

BOS

86-71

4
1
TOR

TOR

90-67

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,927 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 4 · TOR 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0100030004
TOR0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    196
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    105
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    195
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS86-71
4
1
TOR90-67
BOS86-71·TOR90-67
BOS

BOS

86-71

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-55000003
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-55010001
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000001
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44120000
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-33110012
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44010002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
2-22122020
SPRINT25.411
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT2872
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44012000
SPRINT257
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000000
Team9-3535494039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
4.2311430
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.1000110
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000020
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0000000
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000000
Team9.0311560
TOR

TOR

90-67

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-55010001
SPRINT25.920
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000011
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000000
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33000010
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-22110020
SPRINT27.148
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33010002
SPRINT26.838
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-22001010
SPRINT27.560
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000000
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
0-11000000
Team3-3232131056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.2944170
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1000000
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.1000210
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.1000010
T. NanceT. NanceRP
0.1000000
Team9.0944390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    98 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      21%·80.4 mph·31% whiff
    • CU
      1%·78.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·98.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      7%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    92 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      37%·84.4 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.5 mph·67% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.2 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      64%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • KC
      55%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      27%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      75%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

4

Runs

1

2

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1today
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6

Season series

TOR leads series 7-4

Apr 7TORTOR6@BOSBOS2
Apr 8TORTOR6@BOSBOS1
Apr 9TORTOR2@BOSBOS1
Apr 10TORTOR3@BOSBOS4
Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Jun 27TORTOR9@BOSBOS0
Jun 28TORTOR1@BOSBOS15
Jun 29TORTOR5@BOSBOS3
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1today
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 6th Inning

BOSBOS
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat TOR 4-1. Narv's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 51% WP

Lowe · singled to center, Yoshida scored.

TORBottom 4th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Lukes · doubled to right.

BOSTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+23pp→ 86% WP

Narv · áez doubled to center, Abreu scored and Lowe scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0100030004
TOR0001000001

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Narv 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
TOR

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Springer flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to George Springer

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  8. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  9. B9

    Clement fouled out to first.

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  12. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  13. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  14. B9

    Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Chapman relieved Slaten

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  27. B9

    Kiner-Falefa hit for Giménez

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·TOR 1

  30. T9

    ·

    BOS 4·TOR 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

1

9

Hits

3

2

Errors

1

14

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

9

K

6

15

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    54.4%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.7%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.