Recent form
4-6
SF +0.6 vs TEX -1.6 margin
SF brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers
SF
SF
48-66
PregameWed, 2:35 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
TEX
TEX
56-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
TEX no-vig %
61.6%
open 61.6%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Carson Whisenhunt
SP · #88
2-2
W-L
6.63
ERA
1.74
WHIP
16
K
19.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SDL(2-2)3.1 IP6 ER3 K
vsLAAL(2-1)5.0 IP4 ER7 K
vsCOLW(2-0)5.2 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Cody Bradford
SP · #61
—
W-L
—
ERA
—
WHIP
—
K
—
IP
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+160 / -170
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take TEX on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs SF.
TEX is 3-7 recently; SF is 4-6.
58.6%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX3–7-1.6
- SF4–6+0.6
Situational
- TEX1d restB2B
- SF1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; SF has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Nathan Eovaldi · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Jacob deGromTEX6.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Jacob deGrom · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.4.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2strikeouts · ±2.0
MacKenzie Gore · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 5.8.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
TEX is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-03SF @ TEX5–1
- 2026-08-04SF @ TEX4–5
Line move
open -181→-181flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.9%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
58.0%
P(TEX win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
58.0%
P(TEX win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(TEX win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 99 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.7± 2.7high
- Jacob deGromTEX6.5± 2.1high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2± 2.0high
Hits
- Jung Hoo LeeSF1.2± 0.9high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.2± 1.3high
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Osleivis BasabeSF2.5± 3.4low
- Jung Hoo LeeSF2.3± 2.8high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX2.2± 2.8high
RBIs
- Osleivis BasabeSF1.3± 2.0low
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.8± 1.3high
- Daniel SusacSF0.7± 1.5high
Earned runs
- Carson WhisenhuntSF3.5± 2.6low
- MacKenzie GoreTEX3.0± 2.1high
- Nathan EovaldiTEX3.0± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
TEX
.723
OPS
.720
.719
.309
OBP
.318
▶.318
4.20
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.13
4.37
Team ERA
4.18
4.33
1.36
WHIP
1.30
▶1.29
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5SF
Giants
67-77
vs58.7%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
72-67
SF 41.3%win prob58.7% TEX
TEX 1499 · SF 1467Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Blue JaysAstros8/5 - 2:10 PM EDT
- DodgersCubs8/5 - 2:20 PM EDT
- RaysRockies8/5 - 3:10 PM EDT
- AngelsOrioles8/5 - 6:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsYankees8/5 - 7:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/5 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
