Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+1SEA

COL

43-114

SEA

88-69

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

35,925 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

76.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
77.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
79.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
77.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

SEA

.747

OPS

◀

.720

.687

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.86

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

5.52

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.78

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

COL 3 · SEA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +28pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
SEA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MoniakLF	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Crim1B	.294	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. BeckLF	.265	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.256	3	0	1	2	0	0	2
B. DoyleCF	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.234	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
K. FarmerDH	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Ritter2B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	0	1	10

Player

.270

.279

.294

.265

.256

.233

.234

.227

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BrownSP	5.0	2	1	1	2	10	81
J. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. HergetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
J. MejiaRP	0.2	0	3	3	1	2	19
V. VodnikRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	12
Team	8.0	3	4	4	4	16	138

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ArozarenaLF	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. RaleighC	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.268	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. Naylor1B	.292	4	0	2	3	0	0	0
J. PolancoDH	.263	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.189	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
D. CanzoneDH	.297	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
V. RoblesRF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.P. CrawfordSS	.266	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
L. RaleyRF	.205	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		26	4	3	4	1	4	16

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. MillerSP	5.2	5	3	3	1	4	84
E. BazardoRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	7
C. VargasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	10	137

Team

COL

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.