HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Reynolds (PIT): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Reynolds (PIT): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1NYY
CHW

CHW

58-99

2
3
NYY

NYY

89-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
38,318 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

CHW

league avg

NYY

NYY

.733

OPS

.717

▶

.770

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.72

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.21

4.39

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.30

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

CHW 2 · NYY 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +19pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000020002
NYY0100000023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 60-34
61%Last 30 · 297-188
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Chicago White Sox, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. JudgeNYY+73.3pp
  2. 2C. BellingerNYY+59.1pp
  3. 3K. TeelCHW+42.5pp

CHW · top performer

CHW
Kyle Teel

Kyle Teel

C

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jose Caballero

Jose Caballero

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B
.2624000000
K. TeelC
.2752110021
C. MontgomerySS
.2214112101
M. Vargas3B
.2304010001
E. QueroC
.2754010000
B. BaldwinLF
.2364010001
L. Sosa2B
.2584010001
W. RobertsonLF
.1454000000
D. FletcherRF
.2174010000
- M. TaylorRF
.1990000000
Team34272125

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SmithSP
5.05114893
T. GilbertRP
1.0100029
J. LeasureRP
1.00001115
G. TaylorRP
1.02000115
B. EisertRP
0.22222018
S. WilsonRP
0.0100009
Team8.21133712159

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF
.2363000022
A. JudgeRF
.3252100030
C. BellingerLF
.2694000012
B. Rice1B
.2564030000
G. StantonDH
.2634000003
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.2473130010
R. McMahon3B
.2032000001
A. VolpeSS
.2134120001
A. WellsC
.2184021001
- J. CaballeroSS
.2841011000
- A. Rosario3B
.3232000002
- P. Goldschmidt1B
.2780000000
Team3331120712

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GilSP
6.04222389
F. CruzRP
1.01000011
T. HillRP
0.21000110
L. WeaverRP
1.11000124
Team9.072225134

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.8 mph·24% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      56%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      73%·96.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      40%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·79.7 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • L. Gil
    89 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.7 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      46%·89.2 mph·57% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      55%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      36%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Hill
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      100%·87.8 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Sep 23CHWCHW2@NYYNYY3today
Sep 24CHWCHW1@NYYNYY8
Sep 25CHWCHW3@NYYNYY5

Season series

NYY lead series 4-1

Aug 28NYYNYY10@CHWCHW4
Aug 29NYYNYY10@CHWCHW2
Aug 30NYYNYY5@CHWCHW3
Aug 31NYYNYY2@CHWCHW3
Sep 23CHWCHW2@NYYNYY3today
Sep 24CHWCHW1@NYYNYY8
Sep 25CHWCHW3@NYYNYY5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 40pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CHWCHW
K. Teel

K. Teel

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
J. Caballero

J. Caballero

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat CHW 3-2. J. Caballero led the way — 1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS. Bellinger's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Win probability

NYY vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+26pp→ 52% WP

Montgomery · homered to right center (428 feet), Teel scored.

NYYBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 56% WP

Wells · singled to right, Volpe to second.

NYYBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+40pp→ 63% WP

Bellinger · walked, Volpe scored on Eisert wild pitch, Judge to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000020002
NYY0100000023

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · NYY won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Montgomery 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Bellinger 1

CHW
NYY

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 3

  2. B9

    Caballero singled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 3

    +37pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  12. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Jose Caballero

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 3

  13. B9

    Wilson relieved Eisert

    ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  15. B9

    Bellinger walked, Volpe scored on Eisert wild pitch, Judge to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

    +40pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  23. B9

    Brandon Eisert pitches to Cody Bellinger

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 2

  24. B9

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  25. B9

    Judge intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

    +5pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

  30. B9

    Brandon Eisert pitches to Aaron Judge

    · ·

    CHW 2·NYY 1

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

11

TB

12

1

HR

0

2

BB

7

5

K

12

10

LOB

18

Player projections

NYY vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.3± 3.9low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.2± 3.1low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    2.2± 1.6high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    0.9± 1.1high
  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.4± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    68.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.5%

    P(NYY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    69.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.