Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 23, 2025

FINAL+1ARI

LAD

88-69

ARI

80-77

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

42,882 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

ARI

.770

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.314

5.03

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.54

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

LAD 4 · ARI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.282	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. BettsSS	.258	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.292	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.246	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.201	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. PagesCF	.277	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.275	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. CallLF	.254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	5	4	2	2	6

Player

.282

.258

.292

.245

.246

.201

.223

.277

.275

.254

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	6.0	5	0	0	0	8	91
J. DreyerRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	14
E. HenriquezRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	6
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	17
T. ScottRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	21
Team	8.2	9	5	5	3	10	149

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. PerdomoSS	.291	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
K. Marte2B	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
G. MorenoC	.287	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Alexander3B	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Vargas1B	.265	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.251	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.255	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. McCarthyCF	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.212	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. LawlarLF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.246	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.150	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		31	5	9	5	1	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	6.0	4	3	3	2	4	90
J. CurtissRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	14
J. BeeksRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	5	4	4	2	6	125

Team

LAD

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.