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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
LAD

LAD

88-69

4
5
ARI

ARI

80-77

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
42,882 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

LAD 4 · ARI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0100021004
ARI0000003025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 99
    198
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    195
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 97
    132
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    135
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 23·Final/SeriesLAD win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
A

Adrian Del Castillo

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD88-69
4
5
ARI80-77
LAD88-69·ARI80-77
LAD

LAD

88-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33100011
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44010001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44123100
SPRINT28.381
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-44000001
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-44000002
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000001
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
1-33111100
Team5-3232454226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.0500080
SPRINT2744
J. DreyerJ. Dreyer★RP
0.2222010
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
0.1111001
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000210
T. ScottT. ScottRP
0.2122100
Team8.29553101
ARI

ARI

80-77

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-55021001
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44010000
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33010012
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-33000012
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-44000002
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-33210000
SPRINT26.941
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
2-22020000
SPRINT27.867
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-33111001
SPRINT25.29
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-22000001
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11100011
AA. Del CastilloDH
1-11112100
SPRINT26.326
Team9-31315951310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. PfaadtB. Pfaadt★RP
6.0433241
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
0.2111011
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
0.1000010
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0000000
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
Team9.0544262

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • A. Vesia
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • CU
      65%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·100.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·100.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SL
      73%·87.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.7 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • B. Garcia
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      55%·96.8 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      38%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      67%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·77.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 4-3

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5today
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Season series

ARI leads series 6-5

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5today
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 5 H

ARIARI

A. Del Castillo

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat LAD 5-4. Perdomo's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Win probability

ARI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+22pp→ 86% WP

T. Hern · ández tripled to center, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+24pp→ 82% WP

Alexander · struck out swinging.

ARIBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+38pp→ 100% WP

Perdomo · singled to left, Tawa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0100021004
ARI0000003025

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · ARI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Hern 2

1
3

Inn 7

Rortvedt 1

Castillo 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Barrosa 1

LAD
ARI

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·ARI 5

  2. B9

    Perdomo singled to left, Tawa scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 5

    +38pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  9. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 5

  10. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  11. B9

    Barrosa hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

    +9pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  15. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 4

  16. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  17. B9

    McCann hit sacrifice bunt to third, Tawa to second, Vargas to third.

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

    +2pp

  18. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  21. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to James McCann

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  22. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  23. B9

    Tawa walked, Vargas to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

    +17pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  28. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Tim Tawa

    · ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  29. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

  30. B9

    Vargas hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 4·ARI 3

    +13pp

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

4

Runs

5

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

13

TB

13

2

HR

1

2

BB

3

6

K

10

9

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.