Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

CGY

32-38-9

SEA

34-34-11

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-1VegasSEA -130

CGY · top performer

Hunter Brzustewicz

D · #48

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Frederick Gaudreau

C · #89

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	15:16
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	19:24
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	-2	0	1	0	0	16:33
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:30
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	17:41
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	19:58
T. GrossC · #39	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	11:58
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	9:59
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:02
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:34
A. SunievLW · #36	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:25
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	11:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	17:05
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	18:02
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	-1	0	0	4	0	23:06
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	22:06
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	24:52
A. WiebeD · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	20	3	17	.850	58:48

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	21:16
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:42
J. EberleRW · #7	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:54
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:07
F. GaudreauC · #89	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	15:16
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:12
J. McCannLW · #19	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:52
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:27
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:54
C. StephensonC · #9	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	16:59
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:13
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	12:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	1	2	2	0	2	2	18:56
R. EvansD · #41	0	2	2	0	2	1	0	19:26
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:15
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	19:36
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:11
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	18:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. KokkoG · #39	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA wins series 2-1

Dec 19

SEA2@

CGY4

Jan 6

SEA5@

CGY1

Apr 11

CGY1@

SEA4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+11048%

SEA-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat CGY 4-1. F. Gaudreau led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	1	0	1
SEA	0	3	1	4

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · SEA won 2

CGY

SEA

Play-by-play · 276 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·19:21
Kaapo Kakko faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·19:21
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·19:20
Jared McCann Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:56
Ryan Winterton Tip-In Wide Right
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:47
Martin Pospisil hit Jamie Oleksiak
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:40
Martin Pospisil hit Oscar Fisker Molgaard
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:31
Oscar Fisker Molgaard faceoff won against Tyson Gross
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:31
Jordan Eberle Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (9)
·
CGY 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:24
Blake Coleman Wrist Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·17:24
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·17:24
High Stick
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·17:19
Nikke Kokko shot blocked by Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·17:01
Morgan Frost hit Jaden Schwartz
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·16:55
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·16:55
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·16:53
Hunter Brzustewicz Wrist Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:59
Takeaway by Eeli Tolvanen
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:37
Connor Zary Wrist Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:30
Ryan Winterton hit Zayne Parekh
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:04
Ryker Evans hit Olli Maatta
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:01
Tyson Gross shot blocked by Jamie Oleksiak
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:26
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:18
Abram Wiebe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:00
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:58
Matty Beniers Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:47
Hunter Brzustewicz Snap Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
·
CGY 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:38
Giveaway by Brandon Montour
CGY 1·SEA 3

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +110/SEA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Calgary Flames, 4–1.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Matty Beniers · SEA21:240.5660.0%66.8%21:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 60.0% CF · 66.8% xGF
Frederick Gaudreau · SEA15:300.5454.8%69.4%15:30 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 54.8% CF · 69.4% xGF
Bobby McMann · SEA19:240.4659.0%59.0%19:24 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 59.0% CF · 59.0% xGF
Blake Coleman · CGY19:300.3551.4%48.4%19:30 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 51.4% CF · 48.4% xGF
Matt Coronato · CGY16:420.3466.7%49.6%16:42 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 66.7% CF · 49.6% xGF
Hunter Brzustewicz · CGY17:060.2854.8%50.6%17:06 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 54.8% CF · 50.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

#848366826–1.963+0.4226–1 · .963 SV% · +0.42 GSAx
Devin Cooley · CGY17–3.850-0.6117–3 · .850 SV% · -0.61 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(SEA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(SEA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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