Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

37-26-17

COL

52-16-11

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -130

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	16:32
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:11
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	12:09
J. EichelC · #9	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	20:44
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	15:14
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:11
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	10:12
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	20:30
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:41
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:45
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	11:47
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	19:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	25:51
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:25
K. KorczakD · #6	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	11:49
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	15:17
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	18:43
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	20:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	32	2	30	.938	61:19

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:13
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	12:19
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:38
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:50
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	18:13
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:39
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-1	6	0	0	0	21:38
M. NecasC · #88	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	21:51
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	0	2	0	5	2	19:59
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:52
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:54
N. RoyC · #10	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	13:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	14:06
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	18:52
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	22:37
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	21:46
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	11:46
D. ToewsD · #7	1	0	-1	2	0	3	0	26:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	29	3	26	.897	61:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 21

VGK4@

COL2

May 23

VGK3@

COL1

May 25

COL3@

VGK5

May 27

COL1@

VGK2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+11048%

COL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 36 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 3-2. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VGK	1	1	0	1	3
COL	1	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · COL won 0

VGK

COL

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:19
Game End
VGK 3·COL 2
OT·1:19
End of OT
VGK 3·COL 2
OT·1:19
Jack Eichel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none
VGK 3·COL 2
OT·1:10
Devon Toews Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·COL 2
OT·0:51
Takeaway by Brock Nelson
VGK 2·COL 2
OT·0:00
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 2·COL 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·19:59
Jack Drury hit Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·19:54
Jack Drury shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·19:04
Brent Burns Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:59
Giveaway by Rasmus Andersson
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:40
Martin Necas Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:36
Giveaway by Nic Dowd
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:30
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:30
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:28
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:07
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·18:07
Icing
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·17:48
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·17:48
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·17:28
Giveaway by Mark Stone
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:50
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:50
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:48
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:45
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:38
Keegan Kolesar Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:36
Nic Dowd Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·COL 2
3rd·16:28
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
VGK 2·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +110/COL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
69.2%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.2%
P(COL win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.2%
P(COL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL