Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CBJ

CBJ

40-28-12

MTL

47-23-10

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-1VegasMTL -130

CBJ · top performer

Charlie Coyle

C · #3

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	2	0	1	6	0	0	0	21:53
A. FantilliC · #19	0	2	1	0	2	1	2	15:41
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	10:52
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	10:12
B. JennerC · #38	1	0	1	3	2	1	2	18:24
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	9:12
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:38
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	17:12
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:16
S. MonahanC · #23	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:23
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	17:23
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	4:18
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	20:22
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	2	1	2	4	2	19:06
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:36
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	25:30
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	1	0	4	0	1	2	25:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	22	2	20	.909	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:47
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:22
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	12:11
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:45
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:57
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	-1	0	1	3	0	14:46
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:34
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	13:44
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	-2	4	1	0	0	18:40
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	-1	2	0	2	0	18:53
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	13:42
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	1	8	2	0	13:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	12:57
A. EngstromD · #42	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:21
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	26:43
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-2	1	0	1	6	16:24
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	20:21
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	-1	1	1	4	0	19:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	33	5	28	.848	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 2-1

Nov 18

MTL3@

CBJ4

Mar 26

CBJ1@

MTL2

Apr 11

CBJ5@

MTL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ+11048%

MTL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 60 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat MTL 5-2. C. Coyle led the way — 2 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	2	2	1	5
MTL	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 2 · MTL won 0

CBJ

MTL

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·19:47
Joseph Veleno hit Dante Fabbro
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·19:34
Boone Jenner Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·19:30
Giveaway by Adam Engstrom
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·18:57
Kirby Dach Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·18:26
Phillip Danault Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·18:24
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·18:24
Icing
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·18:17
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·17:50
Alexandre Texier Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·17:41
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·17:36
Ivan Demidov Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·17:29
Lane Hutson hit Kent Johnson
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·17:18
Sean Monahan Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·16:53
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·16:53
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·16:51
Mike Matheson Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Zach Werenski
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·16:16
Kirill Marchenko Backhand Wide Left
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:20
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:20
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:17
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:17
Icing
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:09
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·15:09
Off-side
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·14:36
Cole Sillinger shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·14:33
Conor Garland shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2
3rd·14:20
Zach Werenski shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
·
CBJ 5·MTL 2

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ +110/MTL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 5–2.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Charlie Coyle · CBJ22:001.2250.0%49.7%22:00 TOI · 1.22 iXG · 50.0% CF · 49.7% xGF
Boone Jenner · CBJ18:300.6265.7%74.4%18:30 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 65.7% CF · 74.4% xGF
Sean Monahan · CBJ15:240.5753.6%62.7%15:24 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 53.6% CF · 62.7% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL18:480.5648.6%41.3%18:48 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 48.6% CF · 41.3% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ17:180.5562.2%76.5%17:18 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 62.2% CF · 76.5% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL15:060.4946.7%40.5%15:06 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 46.7% CF · 40.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jet Greaves · CBJ20–2.909+0.4620–2 · .909 SV% · +0.46 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL28–5.848+0.2428–5 · .848 SV% · +0.24 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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