Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

STL

34-33-12

CHI

28-38-14

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasSTL -148

STL · top performer

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

1Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Ilya Mikheyev

RW · #95

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	13:26
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	15:29
D. DvorskyRW · #54	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:52
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	17:25
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:41
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:47
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	0	-1	4	0	2	0	17:35
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:00
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	1	1	0	3	0	2	12:27
P. SuterC · #22	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	14:49
R. ThomasC · #18	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	18:29
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	14:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	20:52
C. FowlerD · #17	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:20
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:09
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	20:26
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	22:08
T. TuckerD · #75	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	18:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	34	3	31	.912	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	1	-1	6	0	0	0	23:01
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	21:30
S. BoisvertC · #12	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	11:52
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:28
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:53
A. FrondellC · #16	0	1	1	6	0	2	0	19:11
R. GreeneC · #20	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	15:20
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	9:33
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	13:27
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:27
I. MikheyevRW · #95	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:00
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:24
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	18:32
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	2	1	0	4	0	23:18
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	17:20
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:43
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	28	5	23	.821	57:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 16

CHI8@

STL3

Dec 13

CHI2@

STL3

Jan 8

STL3@

CHI7

Apr 11

STL5@

CHI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-14860%

CHI+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 95 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat CHI 5-3. J. Snuggerud led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	1	3	1	5
CHI	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

STL won 1 · CHI won 0

STL

CHI

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:53
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:45
Ryan Greene shot blocked by Jimmy Snuggerud
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:35
Jake Neighbours hit Ryan Greene
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:21
Anton Frondell Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:19
Connor Bedard shot blocked by Tyler Bertuzzi
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:59
Anton Frondell Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:53
Tyler Bertuzzi Tip-In Wide Right
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:48
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:44
Ryan Donato faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:44
Goalie Stopped
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:42
Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:41
Ryan Donato Tip-In Wide Right
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:36
Teuvo Teravainen Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:06
Jonatan Berggren shot blocked by Nick Lardis
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·17:56
Jonatan Berggren Backhand Wide Right
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·16:48
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Louis Crevier
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·16:27
Giveaway by Anton Frondell
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·16:21
Alex Vlasic shot blocked by Jordan Kyrou
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·15:58
Oskar Sundqvist hit Kevin Korchinski
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·15:10
Pius Suter faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·15:10
Icing
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·14:52
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·14:35
Sacha Boisvert Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·13:55
Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·13:48
Anton Frondell Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·13:46
Takeaway by Anton Frondell
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·13:35
Anton Frondell faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 5·CHI 3
3rd·13:35
Ilya Mikheyev Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (25), Anton Frondell (6)
· ·
STL 5·CHI 3

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -148/CHI +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 5–3.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ryan Donato · CHI17:180.5965.1%78.5%17:18 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 65.1% CF · 78.5% xGF
Ilya Mikheyev · CHI18:000.5642.9%33.4%18:00 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 42.9% CF · 33.4% xGF
Jimmy Snuggerud · STL17:420.5445.0%58.1%17:42 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 45.0% CF · 58.1% xGF
Tyler Tucker · STL19:120.5458.1%64.7%19:12 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 58.1% CF · 64.7% xGF
Connor Bedard · CHI23:120.5256.3%55.1%23:12 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 56.3% CF · 55.1% xGF
Ryan Greene · CHI15:300.4873.3%68.0%15:30 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 73.3% CF · 68.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joel Hofer · STL31–3.912-0.0131–3 · .912 SV% · -0.01 GSAx
Arvid Soderblom · CHI23–5.821-1.8223–5 · .821 SV% · -1.82 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(CHI win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(CHI win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL