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FINAL+3OTT
OTT

OTT

43-27-10

30
NYI

NYI

43-32-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -130

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into New York Islanders and beat them, 3–0.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
0
OTT43-27-10NYI43-32-5
OTT

OTT

43-27-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYI

NYI

43-32-5

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

15

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Oct 18NYINYI5@OTTOTT4
Mar 19NYINYI2@OTTOTT3
Apr 11OTTOTT3@NYINYI0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-13057%
NYINYI+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYI 3-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT1023
NYI0000

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · NYI won 0

1
0

1

0
0

2

2
0

3

OTT
NYI

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  3. 3rd·19:46

    Scott Mayfield Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  4. 3rd·19:03

    Giveaway by Nikolas Matinpalo

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  5. 3rd·18:39

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Thomas Chabot

    ·

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  6. 3rd·18:34

    Tony DeAngelo hit Nick Cousins

    ·

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  7. 3rd·17:35

    Giveaway by Artem Zub

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  8. 3rd·17:33

    Giveaway by Carson Soucy

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  9. 3rd·17:29

    Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  10. 3rd·17:29

    Michael Amadio Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (22), Ridly Greig (22)

    · ·

    OTT 3·NYI 0

  11. 3rd·17:11

    Giveaway by Michael Amadio

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  12. 3rd·16:18

    Takeaway by Drake Batherson

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  13. 3rd·16:03

    Anders Lee Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  14. 3rd·15:56

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  15. 3rd·15:56

    Icing

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  16. 3rd·15:48

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  17. 3rd·15:48

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  18. 3rd·15:30

    Giveaway by Shane Pinto

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  19. 3rd·15:27

    Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Artem Zub

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  20. 3rd·14:51

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  21. 3rd·14:51

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  22. 3rd·14:48

    Brayden Schenn Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  23. 3rd·14:42

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  24. 3rd·14:42

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  25. 3rd·14:23

    Brayden Schenn Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  26. 3rd·14:22

    Emil Heineman shot blocked by Nick Cousins

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  27. 3rd·13:58

    Takeaway by Shane Pinto

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  28. 3rd·13:52

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Adam Pelech

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  29. 3rd·13:23

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    OTT 2·NYI 0

  30. 3rd·13:23

    High Stick

    OTT 2·NYI 0

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

16

Shots

23

20.0

PCT

0.0

15

PIM

15

28

Faceoffs W

23

15

Blocks

12

12

Giveaways

10

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -130/NYI +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Bo HorvatNYI · C
    SHOT MPH93.494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR