Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

OTT

43-27-10

NYI

43-32-5

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -130

OTT · top performer

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Casey Cizikas

C · #53

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	1	2	1	1	3	0	18:52
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	1	1	3	0	4	17:44
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:55
D. CozensC · #24	0	1	0	2	3	1	2	16:23
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:08
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	10:10
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:58
R. GreigC · #71	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	22:36
S. PintoC · #12	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:51
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	21:00
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	0	1	7	1	5	10:25
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	9:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	24:11
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:42
J. SandersonD · #85	1	0	2	2	0	2	0	27:38
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	18:13
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:57
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	24:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	0	23	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:49
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	6	3	1	0	13:29
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:19
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-2	0	2	1	2	12:15
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:41
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:56
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	0	5	12:29
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:19
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	19:00
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	10:36
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	17:48
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	17:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	-2	1	2	0	2	19:40
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	14:02
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:20
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	16:33
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	24:56
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	14:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	15	2	13	.867	56:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Oct 18

NYI5@

OTT4

Mar 19

NYI2@

OTT3

Apr 11

OTT3@

NYI0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-13057%

NYI+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYI 3-0. M. Amadio led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	1	0	2	3
NYI	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · NYI won 0

OTT

NYI

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·19:46
Scott Mayfield Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·19:03
Giveaway by Nikolas Matinpalo
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·18:39
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Thomas Chabot
·
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·18:34
Tony DeAngelo hit Nick Cousins
·
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Artem Zub
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Carson Soucy
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·17:29
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·17:29
Michael Amadio Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (22), Ridly Greig (22)
· ·
OTT 3·NYI 0
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Michael Amadio
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·16:18
Takeaway by Drake Batherson
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·16:03
Anders Lee Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·15:56
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·15:56
Icing
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·15:48
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·15:48
Puck in Netting
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·15:30
Giveaway by Shane Pinto
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·15:27
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:51
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:51
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:48
Brayden Schenn Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:42
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:42
Puck Frozen - Goalie
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:23
Brayden Schenn Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·14:22
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Nick Cousins
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·13:58
Takeaway by Shane Pinto
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·13:52
Jordan Spence shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·13:23
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
OTT 2·NYI 0
3rd·13:23
High Stick
OTT 2·NYI 0

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -130/NYI +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into New York Islanders and beat them, 3–0.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Casey Cizikas · NYI13:420.8365.2%67.9%13:42 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 65.2% CF · 67.9% xGF
#848422118:000.7067.9%89.2%18:00 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 67.9% CF · 89.2% xGF
Jean-Gabriel Pageau · NYI19:120.3051.7%44.0%19:12 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 51.7% CF · 44.0% xGF
Warren Foegele · OTT10:240.2858.8%59.3%10:24 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 58.8% CF · 59.3% xGF
Fabian Zetterlund · OTT9:360.2656.3%60.4%9:36 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 56.3% CF · 60.4% xGF
Jake Sanderson · OTT27:540.2642.9%37.6%27:54 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 42.9% CF · 37.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT23–01.000+2.5423–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.54 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI13–2.867-0.7813–2 · .867 SV% · -0.78 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.6%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.6%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL