NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

52-22-6

UTA

42-31-6

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-0VegasUTAH -125

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–1.

CAR +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

Jordan Staal

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	1	5	0	2	4	18:33
S. Brind'AmourC · #76	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:24
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	6:08
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	14:59
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:28
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:52
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	17:48
B. NadeauLW · #29	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:20
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:40
J. SlavinLW · #23	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:04
J. StaalC · #11	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	19:06
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	1	5	2	0	2	16:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	1	2	0	0	2	20:10
C. LegaultD · #62	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	12:17
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	21:28
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	10:31
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	2	1	0	5	0	26:54
S. WalkerD · #26	1	0	2	2	4	2	0	25:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:47
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-2	2	3	2	0	23:11
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	17:06
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	0	-2	4	0	0	0	20:47
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	22:08
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	15:36
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	8:46
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:43
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-1	3	1	1	2	22:03
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	13:12
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	8:26
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	11:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	17:37
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:34
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	15:40
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	0	2	0	2	2	25:32
D. SimashevD · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	0	5	13:20
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	1	4	3	2	18:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	28	3	25	.893	57:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CAR wins series 2-0

Jan 30

UTA4@

CAR5

Apr 11

CAR4@

UTA1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+10549%

UTA-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

CAR

J. Staal

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG

F. Andersen

Goaltender

26 SV · 1 GA · .963

UTA

D. Guenther

Top skater

1 G · 4 SOG

K. Vejmelka

Goaltender

25 SV · 3 GA · .893

How it ended

CAR beat UTA 4-1. J. Staal led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	2	0	2	4
UTA	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · UTA won 0

CAR

UTA

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:37
Skyler Brind'Amour faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:37
Sean Walker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (17), Jordan Staal (16)
· ·
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:08
Logan Cooley Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:57
Jordan Martinook Snap Shot Wide Left
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:52
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:52
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:50
Mikhail Sergachev Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:45
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:45
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:38
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:38
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:29
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:29
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:26
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:22
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:22
Puck in Netting
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:33
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:33
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:28
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot Wide Left
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:18
Lawson Crouse Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:18
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:13
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
· ·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:05
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:05
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:01
Logan Cooley hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·16:57
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·16:57
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·16:56
Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR +105/UTA -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 skaters with EDGE

Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
CORSI%6699+
Shayne GostisbehereCAR · D
CORSI%6599+
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
CORSI%6499
Seth JarvisCAR · C
CORSI%6499
Sean WalkerCAR · D
SKATE MPH22.997

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Guenther · UTA20:540.7856.6%60.8%20:54 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 56.6% CF · 60.8% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR19:120.7442.9%51.9%19:12 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 42.9% CF · 51.9% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR20:000.6954.9%55.1%20:00 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 54.9% CF · 55.1% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR16:360.5961.0%61.7%16:36 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 61.0% CF · 61.7% xGF
Nick Schmaltz · UTA23:300.4252.8%44.3%23:30 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 52.8% CF · 44.3% xGF
Logan Cooley · UTA23:240.4155.2%60.6%23:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 55.2% CF · 60.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR26–1.963+1.6826–1 · .963 SV% · +1.68 GSAx
Karel Vejmelka · UTA25–3.893+0.1025–3 · .893 SV% · +0.10 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(UTA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.4%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.4%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit