Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at UTA?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

52-22-6

UTA

42-31-6

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-0VegasUTAH -125

CAR · top performer

Jordan Staal

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	1	5	0	2	4	18:33
S. Brind'AmourC · #76	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:24
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	6:08
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	14:59
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:28
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:52
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	17:48
B. NadeauLW · #29	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:20
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:40
J. SlavinLW · #23	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:04
J. StaalC · #11	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	19:06
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	1	5	2	0	2	16:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	1	2	0	0	2	20:10
C. LegaultD · #62	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	12:17
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	21:28
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	10:31
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	2	1	0	5	0	26:54
S. WalkerD · #26	1	0	2	2	4	2	0	25:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:47
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-2	2	3	2	0	23:11
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	17:06
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	0	-2	4	0	0	0	20:47
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	22:08
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	15:36
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	8:46
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:43
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-1	3	1	1	2	22:03
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	13:12
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	8:26
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	11:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	17:37
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:34
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	15:40
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	0	2	0	2	2	25:32
D. SimashevD · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	0	5	13:20
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	1	4	3	2	18:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	28	3	25	.893	57:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 2-0

Jan 30

UTA4@

CAR5

Apr 11

CAR4@

UTA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+10549%

UTA-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 48 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat UTA 4-1. J. Staal led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	2	0	2	4
UTA	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · UTA won 0

CAR

UTA

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:37
Skyler Brind'Amour faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:37
Sean Walker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (17), Jordan Staal (16)
· ·
CAR 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:08
Logan Cooley Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:57
Jordan Martinook Snap Shot Wide Left
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:52
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:52
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:50
Mikhail Sergachev Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:45
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:45
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:38
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:38
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:29
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:29
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:26
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:22
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:22
Puck in Netting
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:33
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:33
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:28
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot Wide Left
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:18
Lawson Crouse Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:18
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:13
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
· ·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:05
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:05
Icing
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·17:01
Logan Cooley hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·16:57
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·16:57
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·UTA 1
3rd·16:56
Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·UTA 1

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR +105/UTA -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–1.

CAR +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Guenther · UTA20:540.7856.6%60.8%20:54 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 56.6% CF · 60.8% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR19:120.7442.9%51.9%19:12 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 42.9% CF · 51.9% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR20:000.6954.9%55.1%20:00 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 54.9% CF · 55.1% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR16:360.5961.0%61.7%16:36 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 61.0% CF · 61.7% xGF
Nick Schmaltz · UTA23:300.4252.8%44.3%23:30 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 52.8% CF · 44.3% xGF
Logan Cooley · UTA23:240.4155.2%60.6%23:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 55.2% CF · 60.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR26–1.963+1.6826–1 · .963 SV% · +1.68 GSAx
Karel Vejmelka · UTA25–3.893+0.1025–3 · .893 SV% · +0.10 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(UTA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.4%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.4%
P(UTA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at UTA?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL