Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DAL

NYR

33-38-9

DAL

48-20-12

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -180

NYR · top performer

Adam Fox

D · #23

0Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:35
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	11:12
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	14:23
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	11:50
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:25
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:58
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-1	1	2	0	5	16:52
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:53
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:30
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	10:22
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	-1	2	2	1	6	18:41
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	21:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:18
A. FoxD · #23	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	25:35
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	21:26
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:19
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	19:58
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	18	1	17	.944	59:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:36
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	10:31
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:43
M. BourqueC · #22	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	19:10
M. DucheneC · #95	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	18:34
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	10:32
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	16:16
C. HughesC · #34	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	6:26
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:43
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:34
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:25
J. RobertsonLW · #21	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:51
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	1	3	0	2	2	26:26
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	22:57
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:40
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	1	0	2	4	2	20:56
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 3

DAL2@

NYR3

Apr 11

NYR0@

DAL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+15040%

DAL-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 92 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat NYR 2-0. J. Robertson led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	0	0	0	0
DAL	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · DAL won 1

NYR

DAL

Play-by-play · 277 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 0·DAL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 0·DAL 2
3rd·19:35
Urho Vaakanainen Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
NYR 0·DAL 2
3rd·19:23
Noah Laba hit Justin Hryckowian
·
NYR 0·DAL 2
3rd·19:01
Noah Laba faceoff won against Colin Blackwell
·
NYR 0·DAL 2
3rd·19:01
Jason Robertson Goal (44) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (26), Mavrik Bourque (20)
· ·
NYR 0·DAL 2
3rd·19:00
Matt Duchene Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·18:58
Jason Robertson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Vincent Trocheck
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·18:38
J.T. Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Adam Fox
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:40
Takeaway by Mikko Rantanen
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:25
Arttu Hyry Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:09
Will Cuylle shot blocked by Thomas Harley
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:07
Urho Vaakanainen Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:04
Noah Laba faceoff won against Arttu Hyry
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:04
Puck in Netting
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·17:02
Jonny Brodzinski shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·16:55
Noah Laba faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·16:55
Puck in Netting
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·16:53
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·16:30
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·16:22
Vladislav Gavrikov shot blocked by Justin Hryckowian
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·16:02
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·15:57
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·15:57
Hand Pass
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·15:23
Jamie Benn faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·15:23
Icing
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·15:07
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
NYR 0·DAL 1
3rd·15:07
Goalie Stopped
NYR 0·DAL 1

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYR +150/DAL -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off New York Rangers, 2–0.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Matt Duchene · DAL18:420.7170.0%77.5%18:42 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 70.0% CF · 77.5% xGF
Jason Robertson · DAL21:060.6066.7%78.5%21:06 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 66.7% CF · 78.5% xGF
J.T. Miller · NYR17:000.3368.0%74.8%17:00 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 68.0% CF · 74.8% xGF
Vladislav Gavrikov · NYR21:480.2856.4%45.8%21:48 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 56.4% CF · 45.8% xGF
Conor Sheary · NYR13:420.2760.9%49.5%13:42 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 60.9% CF · 49.5% xGF
Vincent Trocheck · NYR18:480.2762.5%59.1%18:48 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 62.5% CF · 59.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jake Oettinger · DAL22–01.000+2.1322–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.13 GSAx
Igor Shesterkin · NYR17–1.944+1.2117–1 · .944 SV% · +1.21 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.7%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
67.7%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.7%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.7%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-180

Close price

-180

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York RangersDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL