Live · 2
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FINAL+2DAL
NYR

NYR

33-38-9

02
DAL

DAL

48-20-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -180

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off New York Rangers, 2–0.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

NYR
Jonny Brodzinski

Jonny Brodzinski

C · #22

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene

C · #95

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Rangers at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
2
NYR33-38-9DAL48-20-12
NYR

NYR

33-38-9

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

48-20-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

17

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 3DALDAL2@NYRNYR3
Apr 11NYRNYR0@DALDAL2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYRNYR+15040%
DALDAL-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat NYR 2-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYR0000
DAL0022

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · DAL won 1

0
0

1

0
0

2

0
2

3

NYR
DAL

Play-by-play · 277 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYR 0·DAL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYR 0·DAL 2

  3. 3rd·19:35

    Urho Vaakanainen Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 2

  4. 3rd·19:23

    Noah Laba hit Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 2

  5. 3rd·19:01

    Noah Laba faceoff won against Colin Blackwell

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 2

  6. 3rd·19:01

    Jason Robertson Goal (44) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (26), Mavrik Bourque (20)

    · ·

    NYR 0·DAL 2

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Matt Duchene Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  8. 3rd·18:58

    Jason Robertson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  9. 3rd·18:56

    Giveaway by Vincent Trocheck

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  10. 3rd·18:38

    J.T. Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  11. 3rd·18:09

    Giveaway by Adam Fox

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  12. 3rd·17:40

    Takeaway by Mikko Rantanen

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  13. 3rd·17:25

    Arttu Hyry Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  14. 3rd·17:09

    Will Cuylle shot blocked by Thomas Harley

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  15. 3rd·17:07

    Urho Vaakanainen Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  16. 3rd·17:04

    Noah Laba faceoff won against Arttu Hyry

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  17. 3rd·17:04

    Puck in Netting

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  18. 3rd·17:02

    Jonny Brodzinski shot blocked by Tyler Myers

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  19. 3rd·16:55

    Noah Laba faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  20. 3rd·16:55

    Puck in Netting

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  21. 3rd·16:53

    Matt Duchene shot blocked by Braden Schneider

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  22. 3rd·16:30

    Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  23. 3rd·16:22

    Vladislav Gavrikov shot blocked by Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  24. 3rd·16:02

    Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Esa Lindell

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  25. 3rd·15:57

    Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  26. 3rd·15:57

    Hand Pass

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  27. 3rd·15:23

    Jamie Benn faceoff won against J.T. Miller

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  28. 3rd·15:23

    Icing

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  29. 3rd·15:07

    J.T. Miller faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    NYR 0·DAL 1

  30. 3rd·15:07

    Goalie Stopped

    NYR 0·DAL 1

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

22

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

25.0

15

PIM

17

25

Faceoffs W

21

9

Blocks

19

13

Giveaways

14

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYR +150/DAL -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Noah LabaNYR · C
    BURSTS17992
  • Jaroslav ChmelarNYR · RW
    SKATE MPH23.291
  • Alexis LafreniereNYR · LW
    DIST MI231.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-180

Close price

-180

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

DAL vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    2.7± 1.8high
  • Miro HeiskanenDAL
    2.3± 2.0high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Mavrik BourqueDAL
    0.4± 1.0high

Points

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Adam FoxNYR
    1.2± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR