Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NJ

41-36-3

DET

41-30-9

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasDET -135

NJ · top performer

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

3Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Emmitt Finnie

C · #58

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:56
J. BrattLW · #63	2	1	2	3	0	0	0	17:01
C. BrownRW · #16	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:17
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:54
C. GlassC · #12	1	0	2	3	2	0	0	12:13
B. HalonenLW · #48	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	8:04
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	11:51
N. HischierC · #13	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	20:13
J. HughesC · #86	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:47
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	7:49
T. MeierRW · #28	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	20:51
D. MercerC · #91	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CholowskiD · #44	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:49
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	20:52
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	2	3	1	0	0	2	21:55
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	18:42
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-2	4	1	4	0	21:12
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	1	3	0	0	3	0	22:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	28	3	25	.893	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	1	-2	1	0	1	0	14:39
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:41
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:12
E. FinnieC · #58	1	1	1	3	1	1	0	16:50
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:47
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	9:14
D. LarkinC · #71	0	2	-1	4	0	0	0	20:08
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	14:43
D. PerronLW · #57	1	0	-3	5	3	1	0	15:37
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:54
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	6:17
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	10:59
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	24:00
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	22:12
J. FaulkD · #72	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	22:31
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:31
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	26:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	32	4	28	.875	58:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Nov 25

DET3@

NJ4

Mar 8

DET3@

NJ0

Apr 11

NJ5@

DET3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+11447%

DET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 82 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat DET 5-3. J. Bratt led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	1	1	3	5
DET	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · DET won 0

DET

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 5·DET 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 5·DET 3
3rd·19:34
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 5·DET 3
3rd·19:00
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Jack Hughes
·
NJ 5·DET 3
3rd·19:00
Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (37), Dougie Hamilton (26)
· ·
NJ 5·DET 3
3rd·18:49
Moritz Seider Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·18:04
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:50
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:50
Puck in Netting
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:25
Ben Chiarot hit Cody Glass
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:25
Cody Glass Poke Wide Right
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:17
Ben Chiarot hit Lenni Hameenaho
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:11
J.T. Compher Backhand saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:10
Carter Mazur Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·17:06
Justin Faulk shot blocked by Lenni Hameenaho
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:52
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:52
Puck in Netting
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:50
Andrew Copp shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:38
Ben Chiarot Slap Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:36
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:36
Icing
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:26
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:26
Jesper Bratt Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (48), Connor Brown (25)
· ·
NJ 4·DET 3
3rd·16:10
Giveaway by Connor Brown
NJ 3·DET 3
3rd·16:02
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Connor Brown
·
NJ 3·DET 3
3rd·16:02
Goalie Stopped
NJ 3·DET 3
3rd·15:59
Connor Brown Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
NJ 3·DET 3
3rd·15:17
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 3·DET 3
3rd·15:17
Icing
NJ 3·DET 3
3rd·15:06
Giveaway by Dylan Larkin
NJ 3·DET 3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–3.

NJ +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cody Glass · NJD12:180.7145.8%45.1%12:18 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 45.8% CF · 45.1% xGF
David Perron · DET15:480.5959.4%74.2%15:48 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 59.4% CF · 74.2% xGF
Timo Meier · NJD20:540.5561.0%71.0%20:54 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 61.0% CF · 71.0% xGF
Emmitt Finnie · DET17:000.5145.5%43.3%17:00 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 45.5% CF · 43.3% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD20:060.4964.1%68.4%20:06 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 64.1% CF · 68.4% xGF
Dawson Mercer · NJD21:060.3760.0%70.0%21:06 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 60.0% CF · 70.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jake Allen · NJD25–3.893-0.0325–3 · .893 SV% · -0.03 GSAx
John Gibson · DET28–4.875-0.5428–4 · .875 SV% · -0.54 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL