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FINAL+2NJ
NJ

NJ

41-36-3

53
DET

DET

41-30-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasDET -135

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–3.

NJ +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jesper Bratt

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Emmitt Finnie

Emmitt Finnie

C · #58

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
3
NJ41-36-3DET41-30-9
NJ

NJ

41-36-3

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

41-30-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

0

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Nov 25DETDET3@NJNJ4
Mar 8DETDET3@NJNJ0
Apr 11NJNJ5@DETDET3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJNJ+11447%
DETDET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat DET 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NJ1135
DET1113

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · DET won 0

1
1

1

1
1

2

3
1

3

NJ
DET

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NJ 5·DET 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NJ 5·DET 3

  3. 3rd·19:34

    Jack Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NJ 5·DET 3

  4. 3rd·19:00

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Jack Hughes

    ·

    NJ 5·DET 3

  5. 3rd·19:00

    Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (37), Dougie Hamilton (26)

    · ·

    NJ 5·DET 3

  6. 3rd·18:49

    Moritz Seider Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  7. 3rd·18:04

    Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  8. 3rd·17:50

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  9. 3rd·17:50

    Puck in Netting

    NJ 4·DET 3

  10. 3rd·17:25

    Ben Chiarot hit Cody Glass

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  11. 3rd·17:25

    Cody Glass Poke Wide Right

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  12. 3rd·17:17

    Ben Chiarot hit Lenni Hameenaho

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  13. 3rd·17:11

    J.T. Compher Backhand saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  14. 3rd·17:10

    Carter Mazur Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  15. 3rd·17:06

    Justin Faulk shot blocked by Lenni Hameenaho

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  16. 3rd·16:52

    Marco Kasper faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  17. 3rd·16:52

    Puck in Netting

    NJ 4·DET 3

  18. 3rd·16:50

    Andrew Copp shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  19. 3rd·16:38

    Ben Chiarot Slap Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  20. 3rd·16:36

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  21. 3rd·16:36

    Icing

    NJ 4·DET 3

  22. 3rd·16:26

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  23. 3rd·16:26

    Jesper Bratt Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (48), Connor Brown (25)

    · ·

    NJ 4·DET 3

  24. 3rd·16:10

    Giveaway by Connor Brown

    NJ 3·DET 3

  25. 3rd·16:02

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Connor Brown

    ·

    NJ 3·DET 3

  26. 3rd·16:02

    Goalie Stopped

    NJ 3·DET 3

  27. 3rd·15:59

    Connor Brown Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    NJ 3·DET 3

  28. 3rd·15:17

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 3·DET 3

  29. 3rd·15:17

    Icing

    NJ 3·DET 3

  30. 3rd·15:06

    Giveaway by Dylan Larkin

    NJ 3·DET 3

Team stats

NJ

Away

Stat

DET

Home

33

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

0

22

Faceoffs W

31

11

Blocks

14

11

Giveaways

13

2

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094
  • Justin FaulkDET · D
    BURSTS6990

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR