NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

49-25-6

BOS

43-27-10

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesTB wins series 4-0VegasTB -115

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 2–1.

BOS +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:48
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:15
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:47
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	14:04
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	13:42
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	18:10
B. HagelLW · #38	1	0	1	4	0	0	2	18:46
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:21
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	13:58
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:10
B. PointC · #21	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:21
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	1	2	5	2	0	21:00
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	13:37
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	1	2	1	2	2	21:02
E. LillebergD · #78	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	21:03
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:20
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	22:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	21	1	20	.952	59:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	16:01
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:44
M. GeekieC · #39	1	0	0	2	0	3	0	16:54
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	11:25
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	12:12
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:55
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:02
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:39
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:38
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:28
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	18:53
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	17:06
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:23
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:20
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	25:31
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	19:35
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	24	2	22	.917	58:34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TB wins series 4-0

Oct 13

TB4@

BOS3

Feb 1

BOS5@

TB6

Apr 4

BOS1@

TB3

Apr 11

TB2@

BOS1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11553%

BOS-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 52 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

B. Hagel

Top skater

1 G · 4 SOG

A. Vasilevskiy

Goaltender

20 SV · 1 GA · .952

BOS

M. Geekie

Top skater

1 G · 2 SOG

J. Swayman

Goaltender

22 SV · 2 GA · .917

How it ended

TB beat BOS 2-1. B. Hagel led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	0	2	2
BOS	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

TB won 1 · BOS won 1

BOS

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:49
Pavel Zacha Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:39
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:32
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Viktor Arvidsson
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:23
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:23
Timeout - Home
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:23
Brandon Hagel Interference against Casey Mittelstadt
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:19
Casey Mittelstadt shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:14
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:14
Puck in Crowd
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:00
Elias Lindholm hit Nikita Kucherov
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:52
Takeaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:25
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:25
Emil Lilleberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (50), Brayden Point (31)
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:22
Jake Guentzel Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:17
Takeaway by Brayden Point
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:12
Giveaway by Andrew Peeke
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:34
Marat Khusnutdinov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:16
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:16
Puck in Crowd
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:15
Tanner Jeannot shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:43
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:40
Nick Paul shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:31
Nick Paul shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
· ·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:06
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:05
Andrew Peeke hit Yanni Gourde
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·15:14
J.J. Moser hit Viktor Arvidsson
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·14:50
Gage Goncalves hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
TB 1·BOS 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/BOS -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.091
Viktor ArvidssonBOS · LW
iXG22.988
Morgan GeekieBOS · C
iXG22.587
Jonathan AspirotBOS · D
SHOT MPH94.081
Elias LindholmBOS · C
iXG18.579

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brandon Hagel · TBL19:060.7350.0%55.1%19:06 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 50.0% CF · 55.1% xGF
Viktor Arvidsson · BOS16:060.6854.1%52.9%16:06 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 54.1% CF · 52.9% xGF
Mark Kastelic · BOS12:240.4076.2%80.8%12:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 76.2% CF · 80.8% xGF
Oliver Bjorkstrand · TBL12:540.2735.7%54.1%12:54 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 35.7% CF · 54.1% xGF
Jonathan Aspirot · BOS17:060.2664.3%66.9%17:06 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 64.3% CF · 66.9% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL18:060.2446.2%60.6%18:06 TOI · 0.24 iXG · 46.2% CF · 60.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL20–1.952+0.3620–1 · .952 SV% · +0.36 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS22–2.917-0.0422–2 · .917 SV% · -0.04 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(BOS win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss