Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

49-25-6

BOS

43-27-10

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesTB wins series 4-0VegasTB -115

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:48
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:15
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:47
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	14:04
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	13:42
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	18:10
B. HagelLW · #38	1	0	1	4	0	0	2	18:46
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:21
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	13:58
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:10
B. PointC · #21	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:21
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	1	2	5	2	0	21:00
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	13:37
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	1	2	1	2	2	21:02
E. LillebergD · #78	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	21:03
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:20
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	22:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	21	1	20	.952	59:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	16:01
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:44
M. GeekieC · #39	1	0	0	2	0	3	0	16:54
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	11:25
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	12:12
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:55
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:02
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:39
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:38
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:28
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	18:53
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	17:06
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:23
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:20
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	25:31
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	19:35
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	24	2	22	.917	58:34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 4-0

Oct 13

TB4@

BOS3

Feb 1

BOS5@

TB6

Apr 4

BOS1@

TB3

Apr 11

TB2@

BOS1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11553%

BOS-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 96 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat BOS 2-1. B. Hagel led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	0	2	2
BOS	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

TB won 1 · BOS won 1

BOS

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:49
Pavel Zacha Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:39
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:32
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Viktor Arvidsson
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:23
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:23
Timeout - Home
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:23
Brandon Hagel Interference against Casey Mittelstadt
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:19
Casey Mittelstadt shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:14
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:14
Puck in Crowd
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·19:00
Elias Lindholm hit Nikita Kucherov
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:52
Takeaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:25
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:25
Emil Lilleberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (50), Brayden Point (31)
· ·
TB 2·BOS 1
3rd·18:22
Jake Guentzel Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:17
Takeaway by Brayden Point
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:12
Giveaway by Andrew Peeke
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:34
Marat Khusnutdinov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:16
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:16
Puck in Crowd
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:15
Tanner Jeannot shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:43
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:40
Nick Paul shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:31
Nick Paul shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
· ·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:06
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:05
Andrew Peeke hit Yanni Gourde
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·15:14
J.J. Moser hit Viktor Arvidsson
·
TB 1·BOS 1
3rd·14:50
Gage Goncalves hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
TB 1·BOS 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/BOS -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 2–1.

BOS +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brandon Hagel · TBL19:060.6950.0%58.0%19:06 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 50.0% CF · 58.0% xGF
Mark Kastelic · BOS12:240.5576.2%78.6%12:24 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 76.2% CF · 78.6% xGF
Viktor Arvidsson · BOS16:060.5254.1%53.9%16:06 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 54.1% CF · 53.9% xGF
Jonathan Aspirot · BOS17:060.2864.3%66.4%17:06 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 64.3% CF · 66.4% xGF
Emil Lilleberg · TBL21:060.2850.0%60.1%21:06 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 50.0% CF · 60.1% xGF
Anthony Cirelli · TBL19:180.2844.7%55.9%19:18 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 44.7% CF · 55.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jeremy Swayman · BOS22–2.917+1.0022–2 · .917 SV% · +1.00 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL20–1.952+0.9320–1 · .952 SV% · +0.93 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningBoston Bruins

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