Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VAN

VAN

23-48-8

37-34-8

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriesSJ wins series 3-1VegasSJ -192

VAN · top performer

Jake DeBrusk

LW · #74

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Igor Chernyshov

LW · #92

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:15
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	21:30
J. DeBruskLW · #74	1	0	0	8	1	0	2	17:46
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:20
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	13:48
T. MuellerC · #39	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:02
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:15
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-2	1	2	2	0	17:11
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	-2	7	1	0	0	18:33
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:59
M. RossiC · #93	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:52
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	22:52
F. HronekD · #17	0	1	-2	6	2	1	0	30:55
V. ManciniD · #90	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:19
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-2	2	1	2	0	21:47
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:48
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	18:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	32	3	29	.906	64:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	2	2	5	1	2	0	22:14
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	2	0	2	4	0	2	0	17:59
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	18:32
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:18
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	13:26
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:43
M. MisaC · #77	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	11:58
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	10:51
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17:26
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	2	4	2	1	0	22:26
T. ToffoliC · #73	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:04
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	21:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	1	0	5	0	2	22:43
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	17:02
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	1	2	2	2	0	24:27
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:22
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:07
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	1	0	1	2	2	20:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	41	3	38	.927	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ wins series 3-1

Nov 28

VAN2@

SJ3

Dec 28

SJ6@

VAN3

Jan 28

SJ5@

VAN2

Apr 12

VAN4@

SJ3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+16038%

SJ-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 97 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat SJ 4-3. J. DeBrusk led the way — 1 G · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
VAN	0	2	1	0	1	4
SJ	1	1	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

VAN won 2 · SJ won 1

VAN

Play-by-play · 346 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Linus Karlsson Goal Wrist Shot
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
William Eklund Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Adam Gaudette Backhand saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Will Smith Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Liam Ohgren Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Macklin Celebrini Goal Wrist Shot
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Igor Chernyshov Backhand saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·SJ 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
VAN 2·SJ 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:49
Brock Boeser shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:32
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:32
Timeout - Visitor
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:32
William Eklund Interference against Filip Hronek
·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:26
William Eklund Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:19
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:19
Puck in Netting
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:18
Will Smith shot blocked by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·4:03
Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·3:43
Will Smith shot blocked by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·3:16
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·3:16
Puck in Netting
VAN 3·SJ 3
OT·2:43
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 3·SJ 3

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +160/SJ -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 4–3.

VAN +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
69.6%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.6%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.6%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-192

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL