Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

WSH

41-30-9

PIT

41-23-16

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -155

WSH · top performer

Ryan Leonard

RW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Anthony Mantha

RW · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:56
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	7:02
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:42
R. LeonardRW · #9	2	0	1	3	2	1	0	14:00
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:02
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	11:54
A. OvechkinLW · #8	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	14:59
A. ProtasC · #21	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	16:24
I. ProtasLW · #62	1	2	0	3	0	0	0	16:06
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	17:54
D. StromeC · #17	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	20:01
T. WilsonRW · #43	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	16:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	2	0	0	5	0	23:09
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	19:37
C. HutsonD · #44	0	2	-1	2	2	0	0	19:02
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	2	1	4	0	19:53
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:35
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	3	0	1	1	0	20:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	11	3	8	.727	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	15:01
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	12:27
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	16:08
K. HayesRW · #13	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:51
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:22
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:49
J. KoppanenLW · #15	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:10
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	0	-1	2	1	1	0	13:19
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	14:49
T. NovakC · #18	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	14:32
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	16:57
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	15:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	1	1	4	4	0	24:10
S. GirardD · #49	0	1	-1	0	2	1	0	20:43
R. GravesD · #27	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	15:30
R. SheaD · #5	0	2	3	0	1	1	0	25:12
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	15:42
J. St. IvanyD · #3	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	18:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	31	5	26	.839	59:06

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 7

WSH3@

PIT5

Apr 11

WSH6@

PIT3today

Apr 12

PIT0@

WSH3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-15561%

PIT+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 77 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 6-3. R. Leonard led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	4	2	6
PIT	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PIT won 0

WSH

PIT

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:18
Anthony Beauvillier hit Jack St. Ivany
·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:03
Kevin Hayes shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
· ·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·16:22
Connor McMichael faceoff won against Kevin Hayes
· ·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·16:22
Alex Ovechkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (31)
·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·16:00
Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:35
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:28
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:28
Goalie Stopped
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:25
Joona Koppanen Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:10
Connor Clifton hit Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:02
Avery Hayes hit Tom Wilson
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·14:59
Avery Hayes Wrist Shot Wide Right
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·14:58
Avery Hayes Wrap-around saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·13:43
Aliaksei Protas Tip-In Wide Left
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:58
Justin Sourdif hit Ilya Solovyov
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:32
Ryan Leonard hit Avery Hayes
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:31
Connor McMichael shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:23
Connor Clifton hit Connor McMichael
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:22
Rutger McGroarty hit Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:11
Giveaway by Anthony Beauvillier
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:07
Anthony Beauvillier Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:55
Ilya Protas Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:52
Aliaksei Protas faceoff won against Joona Koppanen
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:52
Goalie Stopped
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:50
Matt Roy Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:13
Cole Hutson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:01
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:00
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Ryan Graves
·
WSH 5·PIT 3

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -155/PIT +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 6–3.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alex Ovechkin · WSH15:060.5178.8%73.0%15:06 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 78.8% CF · 73.0% xGF
Aliaksei Protas · WSH16:300.4653.1%54.3%16:30 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 53.1% CF · 54.3% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH16:540.4550.0%44.8%16:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 50.0% CF · 44.8% xGF
Anthony Mantha · PIT13:120.3950.0%48.0%13:12 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 50.0% CF · 48.0% xGF
#848299315:420.3948.1%56.1%15:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 48.1% CF · 56.1% xGF
Cole Hutson · WSH19:180.3866.7%68.1%19:18 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 66.7% CF · 68.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH8–3.727-1.788–3 · .727 SV% · -1.78 GSAx
Arturs Silovs · PIT26–5.839-2.2526–5 · .839 SV% · -2.25 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(PIT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.5%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.5%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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