NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

WSH

41-30-9

PIT

41-23-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -155

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 6–3.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

Ilya Protas

LW · #62

3Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Noel Acciari

C · #55

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

WSH41-30-9

PIT41-23-16

WSH41-30-9PIT41-23-16

WSH

41-30-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

41-23-16

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 7

WSH3@

PIT5

Apr 11

WSH6@

PIT3today

Apr 12

PIT0@

WSH3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-15561%

PIT+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	4	2	6
PIT	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PIT won 0

WSH

PIT

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:18
Anthony Beauvillier hit Jack St. Ivany
·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:03
Kevin Hayes shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
· ·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·16:22
Connor McMichael faceoff won against Kevin Hayes
· ·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·16:22
Alex Ovechkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (31)
·
WSH 6·PIT 3
3rd·16:00
Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:35
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:28
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:28
Goalie Stopped
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:25
Joona Koppanen Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:10
Connor Clifton hit Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·15:02
Avery Hayes hit Tom Wilson
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·14:59
Avery Hayes Wrist Shot Wide Right
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·14:58
Avery Hayes Wrap-around saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·13:43
Aliaksei Protas Tip-In Wide Left
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:58
Justin Sourdif hit Ilya Solovyov
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:32
Ryan Leonard hit Avery Hayes
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:31
Connor McMichael shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:23
Connor Clifton hit Connor McMichael
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:22
Rutger McGroarty hit Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:11
Giveaway by Anthony Beauvillier
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·12:07
Anthony Beauvillier Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:55
Ilya Protas Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:52
Aliaksei Protas faceoff won against Joona Koppanen
· ·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:52
Goalie Stopped
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:50
Matt Roy Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:13
Cole Hutson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:01
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
·
WSH 5·PIT 3
3rd·10:00
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Ryan Graves
·
WSH 5·PIT 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -155/PIT +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
DIST MI264.495
Ivan MiroshnichenkoWSH · LW
SHOT MPH93.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PIT vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
2.7± 1.7high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands