NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NSH

MIN

45-23-12

NSH

38-32-10

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasMIN -110

MIN · top performer

Michael McCarron

C · #47

1Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	19:35
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:44
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:40
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	1	4	1	4	12:43
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:39
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:46
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	20:41
M. McCarronC · #47	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	12:07
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:20
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	13:30
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	1	0	7	1	0	13:23
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodinD · #25	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	18:50
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	26:45
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	29:58
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:34
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	19:55
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	22	2	20	.909	57:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	17:08
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:49
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:08
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	5	1	0	0	14:19
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:48
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:09
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:13
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	1	1	1	1	3	2	21:35
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	9:47
S. StamkosC · #91	1	1	2	3	0	2	2	21:33
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:22
M. WoodRW · #71	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:20
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	27:10
N. PerbixD · #48	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	15:08
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	24:10
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:21
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 5

NSH2@

MIN3

Dec 24

NSH3@

MIN2

Feb 5

MIN6@

NSH5

Apr 11

MIN1@

NSH2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-11052%

NSH-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 36 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat MIN 2-1. S. Stamkos led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	0	1	1
NSH	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · NSH won 2

MIN

NSH

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:58
Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:54
Erik Haula Wrist Shot Wide Right
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:47
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:47
Off-side
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:33
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:33
Icing
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:27
Takeaway by Brady Skjei
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·19:12
Ryan O'Reilly hit Kirill Kaprizov
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·18:49
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Right
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·18:22
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·18:22
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·18:22
Too many men/ice served by Danila Yurov
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Quinn Hughes
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·18:04
Matt Boldy shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·17:49
Brock Faber shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·16:20
Vladimir Tarasenko Snap Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·16:06
Erik Haula Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:52
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:52
Puck in Netting
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:51
Ryan Hartman Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:41
Giveaway by Justus Annunen
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:26
Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:20
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Brady Skjei
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:52
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:52
Puck in Benches
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:41
Giveaway by Yakov Trenin
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:30
Giveaway by Nick Perbix
MIN 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:18
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Erik Haula
·
MIN 1·NSH 2

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -110/NSH -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Minnesota Wild, 2–1.

NSH +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW
iXG38.499+
Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
DIST MI265.898
Brady SkjeiNSH · D
SKATE MPH23.497
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Marcus Johansson · MIN16:420.5163.9%61.5%16:42 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 63.9% CF · 61.5% xGF
Tyson Jost · NSH14:240.4155.6%47.9%14:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 55.6% CF · 47.9% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN20:480.4159.0%60.2%20:48 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 59.0% CF · 60.2% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN19:420.3857.5%60.4%19:42 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 57.5% CF · 60.4% xGF
Steven Stamkos · NSH21:420.3648.6%50.7%21:42 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 48.6% CF · 50.7% xGF
Vladimir Tarasenko · MIN13:300.3351.6%52.6%13:30 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 51.6% CF · 52.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Justus Annunen · NSH21–1.955+1.3721–1 · .955 SV% · +1.37 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt · MIN20–2.909+0.3320–2 · .909 SV% · +0.33 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
50.4%
P(NSH win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.4%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.4%
P(NSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.