Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at PIT?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PIT

FLA

37-36-3

PIT

39-22-16

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-0VegasPIT -245

FLA · top performer

A.J. Greer

LW · #10

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Evgeni Malkin

C · #71

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	14:53
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	14:39
A.J. GreerLW · #10	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	17:04
N. GregorLW · #18	1	0	-1	2	0	1	0	13:28
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	1	1	2	1	5	12:38
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	16:21
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	16:19
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	13:19
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	0	-1	3	2	0	0	14:05
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	12:22
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	1	-1	0	3	0	0	15:41
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-2	2	0	2	2	18:09
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	17:20
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	21:17
M. HovorkaD · #96	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:55
S. JonesD · #3	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	22:43
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	22:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	12	3	9	.750	30:07
S. BobrovskyG · #72	19	6	13	.684	29:53

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	14:09
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:37
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:10
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	17:32
C. DewarC · #19	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:22
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	12:10
E. MalkinC · #71	3	1	0	6	0	0	0	18:52
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:12
T. NovakC · #18	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	17:09
R. RakellRW · #67	1	1	-1	5	0	0	0	17:19
B. RustRW · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:16
E. SoderblomLW · #25	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	13:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-2	0	2	1	5	17:58
S. GirardD · #49	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:41
E. KarlssonD · #65	1	3	2	2	0	1	0	20:30
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	20:37
R. SheaD · #5	1	0	-1	1	0	2	0	19:24
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	18:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Oct 23

PIT5@

FLA3

Apr 4

FLA4@

PIT9today

Apr 5

FLA2@

PIT5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+20033%

PIT-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 91 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat FLA 9-4. E. Malkin led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	0	2	4
PIT	2	6	1	9

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · PIT won 1

FLA

PIT

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·19:28
Connor Dewar faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·19:28
Icing
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·19:14
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·19:14
Off-side
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·18:20
Donovan Sebrango shot blocked by Kris Letang
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·18:08
Donovan Sebrango Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·17:59
A.J. Greer Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·17:51
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·17:51
Puck in Crowd
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·17:48
Rickard Rakell shot blocked by A.J. Greer
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·17:30
Takeaway by Samuel Girard
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·16:51
Giveaway by Anthony Mantha
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Mike Benning
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·15:15
Connor Clifton shot blocked by Sam Bennett
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·15:08
Noel Acciari Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·13:49
Samuel Girard Slap Shot Off Crossbar
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·13:43
Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Gustav Forsling
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·13:01
Cole Reinhardt hit Anthony Mantha
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:58
Cole Schwindt Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:57
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:54
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:54
Goalie Stopped
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:51
Luke Kunin Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:50
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:50
Goalie Stopped
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:48
Gustav Forsling Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:42
Tomas Nosek shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
FLA 4·PIT 9
3rd·12:06
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 4·PIT 9

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +200/PIT -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Florida Panthers, 9–4.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Evgeni Malkin · PIT19:060.7676.9%79.9%19:06 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 76.9% CF · 79.9% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT17:120.7276.3%79.3%17:12 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 76.3% CF · 79.3% xGF
Tommy Novak · PIT17:240.6382.4%80.1%17:24 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 82.4% CF · 80.1% xGF
Mackie Samoskevich · SEA14:000.3951.7%44.5%14:00 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 51.7% CF · 44.5% xGF
#847939313:300.3830.4%34.3%13:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 30.4% CF · 34.3% xGF
Elmer Soderblom · PIT13:240.3866.7%72.8%13:24 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 66.7% CF · 72.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Daniil Tarasov · FLA9–3.750-1.669–3 · .750 SV% · -1.66 GSAx
Arturs Silovs · PIT19–4.826-2.1919–4 · .826 SV% · -2.19 GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA13–6.684-3.7013–6 · .684 SV% · -3.70 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
59.6%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+200

Close price

+200

Open no-vig

31.9%

Close no-vig

31.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at PIT?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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