Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3UTA

UTA

40-30-6

VAN

22-46-8

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesUTA wins series 3-0VegasUTAH -230

UTA · top performer

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

4Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Linus Karlsson

C · #94

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:53
L. CooleyC · #92	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	14:45
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	15:09
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	17:03
C. KellerRW · #9	3	1	3	3	0	1	0	17:21
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	16:00
L. O'BrienC · #38	1	0	1	1	6	1	0	10:21
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	14:00
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	19:44
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	15:53
B. TanevLW · #13	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	10:32
K. YamamotoRW · #56	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	1	2	0	1	0	4	17:27
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	15:54
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	19:31
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:02
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:45
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	25:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	1	1	2	0	1	2	14:06
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	1	-3	2	1	0	0	19:57
J. DeBruskLW · #74	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:36
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	11:52
L. KarlssonC · #94	2	0	0	3	1	0	2	14:04
T. MuellerC · #39	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:21
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	15:58
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	16:29
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	18:58
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	12:04
M. RossiC · #93	1	0	-4	2	0	0	0	17:53
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	12:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	20:11
F. HronekD · #17	0	2	-2	3	2	2	2	26:59
P. JosephD · #7	0	1	1	0	3	1	2	13:00
V. ManciniD · #90	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:21
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	21:54
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	19:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	24	6	18	.750	58:21

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA wins series 3-0

Dec 6

UTA4@

VAN1

Feb 3

VAN2@

UTA6

Apr 4

UTA7@

VAN4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA-23070%

VAN+19034%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 55 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VAN 7-4. C. Keller led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	2	2	3	7
VAN	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

UTA won 3 · VAN won 0

UTA

VAN

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:52
Aatu Räty hit Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:47
Ty Mueller Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:40
Liam Ohgren Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:20
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:20
Hand Pass
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:07
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Ty Mueller
·
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·19:07
Clayton Keller Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (40), Ian Cole (19)
· ·
UTA 7·VAN 4
3rd·18:48
Giveaway by Ian Cole
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·18:33
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·17:49
Jake DeBrusk Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·17:45
Elias Pettersson shot blocked by Kevin Stenlund
· ·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·16:37
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·16:37
Goalie Stopped
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·16:35
Nick Schmaltz Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:52
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Drew O'Connor
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:52
JJ Peterka Hooking against Elias Pettersson
· ·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:22
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:22
Goalie Stopped
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:19
Aatu Räty Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:14
Marcus Pettersson shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
· ·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:06
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·15:06
Off-side
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·14:59
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·14:59
TV Timeout
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·14:59
Teddy Blueger Slashing against Michael Carcone
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·14:43
Brock Boeser hit Sean Durzi
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·14:38
Michael Carcone shot blocked by Liam Ohgren
·
UTA 6·VAN 4
3rd·14:29
Sean Durzi Snap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 6·VAN 4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -230/VAN +190

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 7–4.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nick Schmaltz · UTA19:480.4251.7%55.0%19:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 51.7% CF · 55.0% xGF
Jake DeBrusk · VAN17:060.3966.7%60.5%17:06 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 66.7% CF · 60.5% xGF
Dylan Guenther · UTA17:060.2951.9%55.0%17:06 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 51.9% CF · 55.0% xGF
Filip Hronek · VAN27:000.2455.8%53.0%27:00 TOI · 0.24 iXG · 55.8% CF · 53.0% xGF
Linus Karlsson · VAN14:180.2148.0%45.2%14:18 TOI · 0.21 iXG · 48.0% CF · 45.2% xGF
Clayton Keller · UTA17:180.2151.9%50.6%17:18 TOI · 0.21 iXG · 51.9% CF · 50.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Karel Vejmelka · UTA19–4.826-1.9519–4 · .826 SV% · -1.95 GSAx
Nikita Tolopilo · VAN18–6.750-3.7718–6 · .750 SV% · -3.77 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
39.4%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
39.4%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
39.4%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+190

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothVancouver Canucks

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