Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at CAR?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

NYI

42-31-5

CAR

49-21-6

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-0VegasCAR -258

NYI · top performer

Anders Lee

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	-2	2	0	2	0	16:30
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:28
M. GatcombC · #16	1	0	1	2	3	0	2	10:31
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:50
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	15:58
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:43
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	16:46
J. PageauC · #44	0	1	0	1	2	2	0	15:48
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	9:46
C. RitchieC · #64	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	17:13
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	17:11
M. ShabanovRW · #49	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. GeorgeD · #36	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	10:21
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	16:12
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	22:22
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2	19:36
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	-1	1	2	1	0	27:11
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	19:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	40	4	36	.900	56:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	3	7	0	0	0	18:48
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	16:29
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	11:04
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:41
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	16:04
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:58
S. JarvisC · #24	2	1	3	6	0	0	2	17:26
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:08
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:08
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:33
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	16:45
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	16:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	20:13
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:58
K. MillerD · #19	0	2	1	1	1	1	0	19:35
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	16:43
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	20:54
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	18:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	16	3	13	.813	59:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR leads series 2-0

Oct 30

NYI2@

CAR6

Apr 4

NYI3@

CAR4today

Apr 14

CAR2@

NYI1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+21032%

CAR-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat NYI 4-3. S. Jarvis led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	1	1	1	3
CAR	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · CAR won 1

NYI

CAR

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·19:50
Seth Jarvis Wrist Shot Wide Left
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·19:43
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·19:36
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·19:33
Anders Lee Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·19:11
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·18:47
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·18:47
Icing
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·18:23
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·18:23
Anders Lee Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (36), Mathew Barzal (51)
· ·
NYI 3·CAR 4
3rd·18:16
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:16
Puck in Netting
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:06
Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·18:04
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Sean Walker
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:42
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:42
Icing
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:33
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:28
Bo Horvat Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:10
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:08
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·17:08
Icing
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:23
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:19
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:19
Goalie Stopped
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·16:12
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:29
Scott Mayfield Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·15:11
Mark Jankowski Backhand Wide Left
·
NYI 2·CAR 4
3rd·14:33
Jordan Staal Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·CAR 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +210/CAR -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off New York Islanders, 4–3.

NYI +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sebastian Aho · CAR18:540.8175.7%66.4%18:54 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 75.7% CF · 66.4% xGF
Anders Lee · NYI16:540.6433.3%44.3%16:54 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 33.3% CF · 44.3% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR17:300.5866.7%59.0%17:30 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 66.7% CF · 59.0% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR17:120.4275.0%62.5%17:12 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 75.0% CF · 62.5% xGF
Jalen Chatfield · CAR20:240.3963.8%53.9%20:24 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 63.8% CF · 53.9% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR16:360.3671.4%83.7%16:36 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 71.4% CF · 83.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI36–4.900+0.1436–4 · .900 SV% · +0.14 GSAx
Brandon Bussi · CAR13–3.813-0.8013–3 · .813 SV% · -0.80 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(CAR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+210

Close price

+210

Open no-vig

30.9%

Close no-vig

30.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at CAR?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York IslandersCarolina Hurricanes

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