Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NSH

NSH

36-31-9

36-32-7

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesNSH leads series 2-0VegasSJ -120

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

3Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	12:46
F. ForsbergLW · #9	2	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:45
E. HaulaLW · #56	1	0	0	4	3	2	0	16:54
T. JostC · #17	1	2	3	2	1	3	0	15:40
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	7:26
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:23
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	1	-2	3	3	0	0	17:01
R. O'ReillyC · #90	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	21:26
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:25
S. StamkosC · #91	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	16:14
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:48
M. WoodRW · #71	0	1	0	3	2	0	4	11:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:22
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:34
R. JosiD · #59	0	2	1	4	1	3	4	27:07
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	23:55
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	3	3	2	4	25:14
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	2	2	1	3	1	0	21:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	27	3	24	.889	59:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	0	-1	5	2	0	0	23:40
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	14:15
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	14:49
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:39
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:49
C. GrafRW · #51	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	17:03
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	11:10
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	3	2	4	10:09
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	13:00
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-2	3	0	0	2	18:52
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	-3	2	2	0	0	14:52
A. WennbergC · #21	1	0	-1	2	1	1	0	20:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	1	1	4	2	0	20:44
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	2	2	0	3	0	20:58
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	-1	0	4	3	0	16:34
N. LeddyD · #4	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	20:42
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	13:02
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	-2	3	1	2	2	22:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	33	5	28	.848	58:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH leads series 2-0

Mar 25

SJ3@

NSH6

Apr 5

NSH6@

SJ3today

Apr 14

SJ3@

NSH2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+10050%

SJ-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 80 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat SJ 6-3. F. Forsberg led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	3	0	3	6
SJ	0	2	1	3

Period scoring

NSH won 2 · SJ won 1

NSH

Play-by-play · 354 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·19:49
Matthew Wood faceoff won against Barclay Goodrow
·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·19:49
Kiefer Sherwood Interference against Tyson Jost
· ·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·19:29
Matthew Wood faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·19:29
Icing
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·19:05
Shakir Mukhamadullin shot blocked by Steven Stamkos
·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·18:57
Barclay Goodrow shot blocked by Adam Wilsby
·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·18:45
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·18:45
Tyson Jost Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (44), Adam Wilsby (14)
· ·
NSH 6·SJ 3
3rd·18:19
Adam Wilsby hit Tyler Toffoli
·
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·18:08
Nick Perbix Wrist Shot Wide Right
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·18:07
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·18:02
Giveaway by Brady Skjei
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·18:00
Takeaway by Brady Skjei
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·17:33
William Eklund shot blocked by Brady Skjei
·
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·17:26
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·17:26
Timeout - Home
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·17:26
Erik Haula Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (7)
·
NSH 5·SJ 3
3rd·17:03
Tyson Jost Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:57
Giveaway by Will Smith
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:39
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:39
Roman Josi Delaying Game - Puck over glass
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:24
Dmitry Orlov Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:22
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Steven Stamkos
·
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:22
Icing
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·16:09
Adam Wilsby hit William Eklund
·
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·15:51
Takeaway by Zachary L'Heureux
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·15:33
Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais
NSH 4·SJ 3
3rd·15:28
Dmitry Orlov hit Luke Evangelista
·
NSH 4·SJ 3

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +100/SJ -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 6–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.4%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.4%
P(SJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Nashville PredatorsSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL