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FINAL+1MTL
MTL

MTL

45-21-10

43
NJ

NJ

39-34-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMTL -125

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 4–3.

NJ +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jack Hughes

Jack Hughes

C · #86

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
4
3
MTL45-21-10NJ39-34-3
MTL

MTL

45-21-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

39-34-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 7MTLMTL3@NJNJ4
Apr 4MTLMTL4@NJNJ3today
Apr 5NJNJ3@MTLMTL0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-12556%
NJNJ+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NJ 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
MTL120014
NJ021003

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · NJ won 1

1
0

1

2
2

2

0
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

MTL
NJ

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Oliver Kapanen Goal Wrist Shot

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Cody Glass Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Lenni Hameenaho Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Jack Hughes Goal Wrist Shot

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Ivan Demidov Goal Wrist Shot

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  11. SO·0:00

    Jesper Bratt Goal Wrist Shot

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  12. SO·0:00

    Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  13. SO·0:00

    Paul Cotter Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  14. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    MTL 3·NJ 2

  15. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  16. OT·4:51

    Takeaway by Ivan Demidov

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  17. OT·4:35

    Jack Hughes Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    · ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  18. OT·4:15

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  19. OT·3:35

    Timo Meier hit Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  20. OT·3:33

    Timo Meier Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  21. OT·3:12

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  22. OT·3:12

    Puck in Netting

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  23. OT·3:09

    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Jack Hughes

    · ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  24. OT·2:40

    Oliver Kapanen Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  25. OT·2:31

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  26. OT·2:18

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  27. OT·2:18

    Puck in Netting

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  28. OT·2:16

    Ivan Demidov Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  29. OT·1:28

    Nico Hischier Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

  30. OT·1:05

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·NJ 3

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

29

Shots

38

20.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

10

25

Faceoffs W

34

6

Blocks

13

12

Giveaways

13

6

Takeaways

1

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -125/NJ +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NJ vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jack HughesNJ
    4.3± 1.7high
  • Timo MeierNJ
    3.3± 3.0high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    2.8± 1.4high

Goals

  • Jack HughesNJ
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Alex NewhookMTL
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Jack HughesNJ
    1.6± 1.7high
  • Jesper BrattNJ
    1.0± 1.7high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR