Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

45-21-10

39-34-3

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMTL -125

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Timo Meier

RW · #28

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:30
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:06
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	2	0	5	0	0	0	22:15
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:11
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	-1	4	0	0	2	20:40
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:43
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	9:48
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	14:33
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	15:15
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:46
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	23:55
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	22:08
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	16:53
L. HutsonD · #48	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	29:47
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	24:01
J. StrubleD · #47	1	0	2	1	3	1	0	15:28
A. XhekajD · #72	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	10:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	38	3	35	.921	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	9:16
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	20:24
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	22:17
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6:27
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	12:43
B. HalonenLW · #48	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:56
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	9:39
N. HischierC · #13	0	1	2	3	1	1	0	23:47
J. HughesC · #86	1	1	1	5	0	3	2	26:26
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:34
T. MeierRW · #28	1	1	2	7	5	0	0	20:06
D. MercerC · #91	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	21:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	15:15
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	1	1	3	3	2	0	22:54
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	27:43
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	21:08
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:23
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	1	-1	0	0	1	2	18:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	29	3	26	.897	64:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 7

MTL3@

NJ4

Apr 4

MTL4@

NJ3today

Apr 5

NJ3@

MTL0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-12556%

NJ+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 58 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NJ 4-3. C. Caufield led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
MTL	1	2	0	0	1	4
NJ	0	2	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · NJ won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Oliver Kapanen Goal Wrist Shot
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Cody Glass Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Lenni Hameenaho Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Jack Hughes Goal Wrist Shot
·
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Ivan Demidov Goal Wrist Shot
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Jesper Bratt Goal Wrist Shot
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Paul Cotter Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
MTL 3·NJ 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·4:51
Takeaway by Ivan Demidov
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·4:35
Jack Hughes Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
· ·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·4:15
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·3:35
Timo Meier hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·3:33
Timo Meier Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·3:12
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·3:12
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·3:09
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Jack Hughes
· ·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·2:40
Oliver Kapanen Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·2:31
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·2:18
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·2:18
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·2:16
Ivan Demidov Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·1:28
Nico Hischier Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·NJ 3
OT·1:05
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·NJ 3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -125/NJ +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 4–3.

NJ +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Caufield · MTL24:420.9041.2%30.3%24:42 TOI · 0.90 iXG · 41.2% CF · 30.3% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD26:300.8156.3%61.6%26:30 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 56.3% CF · 61.6% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL21:000.7462.2%57.5%21:00 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 62.2% CF · 57.5% xGF
Connor Brown · NJD22:180.7260.5%60.5%22:18 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 60.5% CF · 60.5% xGF
Timo Meier · NJD20:120.7167.6%76.8%20:12 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 67.6% CF · 76.8% xGF
Jesper Bratt · NJD20:300.7162.2%64.0%20:30 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 62.2% CF · 64.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL35–3.921+2.0735–3 · .921 SV% · +2.07 GSAx
Jake Allen · NJD26–3.897+0.8926–3 · .897 SV% · +0.89 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(NJ win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
51.3%
P(NJ win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

NJ vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 108 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Jesper BrattNJ
1.0± 1.7high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensNew Jersey Devils

Elsewhere in the NHL