Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at EDM?

The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

VGK

35-26-16

EDM

39-29-9

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesEDM wins series 3-1VegasEDM -110

VGK · top performer

Brett Howden

C · #21

2Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Evan Bouchard

D · #2

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	15:21
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:46
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	12:58
J. EichelC · #9	0	3	3	2	0	0	0	18:08
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:57
B. HowdenC · #21	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	15:59
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	10:51
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	21:37
C. SissonsC · #10	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	13:24
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:03
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	11:17
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	19:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	1	0	0	1	0	4	0	22:03
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	22:59
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	11:55
J. LauzonD · #5	1	1	2	2	2	1	0	15:16
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	22:34
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	20:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	32	1	31	.969	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:59
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	11:03
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:29
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	11:00
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	15:36
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	10:43
C. McDavidC · #97	0	0	1	5	1	1	0	23:25
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:16
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	-3	3	1	1	0	13:34
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:50
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-3	0	2	1	0	10:40
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	20:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	24:10
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:58
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	11:44
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	19:25
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	5	4	2	0	21:37
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-3	2	1	2	0	18:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	33	5	28	.848	59:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM wins series 3-1

Dec 22

VGK3@

EDM4

Mar 9

EDM4@

VGK2

Mar 27

EDM4@

VGK3

Apr 5

VGK5@

EDM1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-11052%

EDM-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 62 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat EDM 5-1. B. Howden led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	2	2	5
EDM	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

VGK won 3 · EDM won 0

VGK

EDM

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·19:50
Jack Roslovic hit Kaedan Korczak
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Rasmus Andersson
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:57
Jason Dickinson Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:48
Colton Sissons Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Connor Murphy
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:30
Jeremy Lauzon hit Curtis Lazar
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:15
Max Jones hit Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:11
Darnell Nurse Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:07
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Adam Henrique
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:07
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:05
Darnell Nurse Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:03
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:03
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·18:01
Darnell Nurse Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·17:58
Connor Murphy Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·17:56
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·17:56
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·17:54
Vasily Podkolzin Backhand saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Darnell Nurse
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·16:54
Giveaway by Josh Samanski
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·16:40
Cole Smith Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
· ·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·16:30
Keegan Kolesar shot blocked by Jake Walman
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·16:13
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·16:13
Rasmus Andersson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (36), Noah Hanifin (22)
· ·
VGK 5·EDM 1
3rd·15:03
Tomas Hertl Snap Shot Short
·
VGK 4·EDM 1
3rd·14:56
Kasperi Kapanen hit Pavel Dorofeyev
·
VGK 4·EDM 1
3rd·14:25
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 4·EDM 1

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -110/EDM -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
61.9%
P(EDM win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.9%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.9%
P(EDM win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at EDM?: The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsEdmonton Oilers

Elsewhere in the NHL