Live · 4
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+4VGK
VGK

VGK

35-26-16

51
EDM

EDM

39-29-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesEDM wins series 3-1VegasEDM -110

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Jack Eichel

Jack Eichel

C · #9

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Jack Roslovic

Jack Roslovic

C · #28

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
VGK35-26-16EDM39-29-9
VGK

VGK

35-26-16

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

39-29-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

EDM wins series 3-1

Dec 22VGKVGK3@EDMEDM4
Mar 9EDMEDM4@VGKVGK2
Mar 27EDMEDM4@VGKVGK3
Apr 5VGKVGK5@EDMEDM1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-11052%
EDMEDM-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat EDM 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK1225
EDM0101

Period scoring

VGK won 3 · EDM won 0

1
0

1

2
1

2

2
0

3

VGK
EDM

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  3. 3rd·19:50

    Jack Roslovic hit Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  4. 3rd·19:00

    Giveaway by Rasmus Andersson

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  5. 3rd·18:57

    Jason Dickinson Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  6. 3rd·18:48

    Colton Sissons Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  7. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Connor Murphy

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  8. 3rd·18:30

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Curtis Lazar

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  9. 3rd·18:15

    Max Jones hit Jeremy Lauzon

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  10. 3rd·18:11

    Darnell Nurse Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  11. 3rd·18:07

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Adam Henrique

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  12. 3rd·18:07

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  13. 3rd·18:05

    Darnell Nurse Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  14. 3rd·18:03

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  15. 3rd·18:03

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  16. 3rd·18:01

    Darnell Nurse Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  17. 3rd·17:58

    Connor Murphy Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  18. 3rd·17:56

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Brett Howden

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  19. 3rd·17:56

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  20. 3rd·17:54

    Vasily Podkolzin Backhand saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  21. 3rd·17:40

    Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  22. 3rd·17:24

    Giveaway by Darnell Nurse

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  23. 3rd·16:54

    Giveaway by Josh Samanski

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  24. 3rd·16:40

    Cole Smith Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    · ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  25. 3rd·16:30

    Keegan Kolesar shot blocked by Jake Walman

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  26. 3rd·16:13

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  27. 3rd·16:13

    Rasmus Andersson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (36), Noah Hanifin (22)

    · ·

    VGK 5·EDM 1

  28. 3rd·15:03

    Tomas Hertl Snap Shot Short

    ·

    VGK 4·EDM 1

  29. 3rd·14:56

    Kasperi Kapanen hit Pavel Dorofeyev

    ·

    VGK 4·EDM 1

  30. 3rd·14:25

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 4·EDM 1

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

33

Shots

32

50.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

28

16

Blocks

11

19

Giveaways

15

8

Takeaways

3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -110/EDM -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR