Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NYR

DET

40-28-8

NYR

32-36-9

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasDET -148

DET · top performer

David Perron

LW · #57

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Gabe Perreault

RW · #94

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:54
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	20:30
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	22:22
E. FinnieC · #58	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	18:28
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	23:06
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	10:07
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	-1	8	0	0	0	20:45
D. PerronLW · #57	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	13:46
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	9:31
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	19:53
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	5:50
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:07
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	1	2	3	7	15:43
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	20:59
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:23
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:51
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	28:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	19	3	16	.842	55:33

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	1	-1	1	3	0	0	11:12
J. ChmelarRW · #49	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	12:00
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	3	1	5	12:05
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	13:34
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:27
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:00
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	1	3	0	2	2	17:05
G. PerreaultRW · #94	3	0	2	6	0	1	0	15:44
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	11:13
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	11:10
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	17:44
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	20:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	18:44
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:16
A. FoxD · #23	0	2	2	3	1	2	0	22:39
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	1	2	0	1	1	0	26:00
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	18:18
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	20:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	33	1	32	.970	59:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Nov 8

NYR4@

DET1

Nov 17

DET2@

NYR1

Apr 4

DET1@

NYR4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-14860%

NYR+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 85 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat DET 4-1. G. Perreault led the way — 3 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	0	1	1
NYR	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

DET won 0 · NYR won 3

DET

NYR

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 1·NYR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:27
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
DET 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:27
David Perron Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (16), James van Riemsdyk (15)
· ·
DET 1·NYR 4
3rd·18:46
Marco Kasper Tip-In saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 4
3rd·18:16
Noah Laba faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 0·NYR 4
3rd·18:16
Gabe Perreault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Adam Fox (40)
· ·
DET 0·NYR 4
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by J.T. Miller
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:58
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Vladislav Gavrikov
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:55
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:44
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:44
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:42
James van Riemsdyk Deflected saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:39
Dylan Larkin Backhand saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:31
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:31
Goalie Stopped
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:29
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:17
Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Matthew Robertson
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:32
James van Riemsdyk Tip-In Wide Left
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:31
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:22
Will Cuylle Backhand Hit Right Post
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:40
Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:38
Dylan Larkin Deflected saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:22
Lucas Raymond Slap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:18
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:15
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:15
Noah Laba High-sticking against James van Riemsdyk
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:15
Goalie Stopped
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:13
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
DET 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:49
Moritz Seider Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
DET 0·NYR 3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -148/NYR +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Gabe Perreault · NYR15:480.7637.1%40.9%15:48 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 37.1% CF · 40.9% xGF
Dylan Larkin · DET21:120.7271.7%69.2%21:12 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 71.7% CF · 69.2% xGF
David Perron · DET14:120.5666.7%84.6%14:12 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 66.7% CF · 84.6% xGF
Marco Kasper · DET10:000.3850.0%55.1%10:00 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 50.0% CF · 55.1% xGF
Mika Zibanejad · NYR21:060.3235.0%48.3%21:06 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 35.0% CF · 48.3% xGF
Lucas Raymond · DET20:120.2883.7%89.6%20:12 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 83.7% CF · 89.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jonathan Quick · NYR32–1.970+2.1232–1 · .970 SV% · +2.12 GSAx
John Gibson · DET16–3.842-0.8316–3 · .842 SV% · -0.83 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
50.3%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.3%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.3%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL