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FINAL+3NYR
DET

DET

40-28-8

14
NYR

NYR

32-36-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasDET -148

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Emmitt Finnie

Emmitt Finnie

C · #58

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

NYR
Gabe Perreault

Gabe Perreault

RW · #94

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
DET40-28-8NYR32-36-9
DET

DET

40-28-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYR

NYR

32-36-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

13

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Nov 8NYRNYR4@DETDET1
Nov 17DETDET2@NYRNYR1
Apr 4DETDET1@NYRNYR4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-14860%
NYRNYR+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat DET 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET0011
NYR1124

Period scoring

DET won 0 · NYR won 3

0
1

1

0
1

2

1
2

3

DET
NYR

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 1·NYR 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 1·NYR 4

  3. 3rd·19:27

    Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    DET 1·NYR 4

  4. 3rd·19:27

    David Perron Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (16), James van Riemsdyk (15)

    · ·

    DET 1·NYR 4

  5. 3rd·18:46

    Marco Kasper Tip-In saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 4

  6. 3rd·18:16

    Noah Laba faceoff won against Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 4

  7. 3rd·18:16

    Gabe Perreault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Adam Fox (40)

    · ·

    DET 0·NYR 4

  8. 3rd·18:01

    Giveaway by J.T. Miller

    DET 0·NYR 3

  9. 3rd·17:58

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Vladislav Gavrikov

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  10. 3rd·17:55

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  11. 3rd·17:44

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  12. 3rd·17:44

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    DET 0·NYR 3

  13. 3rd·17:42

    James van Riemsdyk Deflected saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  14. 3rd·17:39

    Dylan Larkin Backhand saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  15. 3rd·17:31

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against J.T. Miller

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  16. 3rd·17:31

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 0·NYR 3

  17. 3rd·17:29

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  18. 3rd·17:17

    Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Matthew Robertson

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  19. 3rd·16:32

    James van Riemsdyk Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  20. 3rd·15:31

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  21. 3rd·15:22

    Will Cuylle Backhand Hit Right Post

    DET 0·NYR 3

  22. 3rd·14:40

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  23. 3rd·14:38

    Dylan Larkin Deflected saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  24. 3rd·14:22

    Lucas Raymond Slap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  25. 3rd·14:18

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  26. 3rd·14:15

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  27. 3rd·14:15

    Noah Laba High-sticking against James van Riemsdyk

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  28. 3rd·14:15

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 0·NYR 3

  29. 3rd·14:13

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

  30. 3rd·13:49

    Moritz Seider Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    DET 0·NYR 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

33

Shots

20

0.0

PCT

50.0

9

PIM

13

22

Faceoffs W

34

15

Blocks

17

10

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -148/NYR +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR