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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

50-15-10

20
DAL

DAL

45-20-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -120

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 2–0.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Martin Necas

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Oskar Back

Oskar Back

C · #10

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
0
COL50-15-10DAL45-20-12
COL

COL

50-15-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

45-20-12

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 12DALDAL5@COLCOL4
Mar 7COLCOL5@DALDAL4
Mar 19DALDAL2@COLCOL1
Apr 4COLCOL2@DALDAL0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-12055%
DALDAL+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat DAL 2-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0022
DAL0000

Period scoring

COL won 1 · DAL won 0

0
0

1

0
0

2

2
0

3

COL
DAL

Play-by-play · 275 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 2·DAL 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 2·DAL 0

  3. 3rd·19:55

    Mavrik Bourque hit Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    COL 2·DAL 0

  4. 3rd·19:42

    Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    COL 2·DAL 0

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Off-side

    COL 2·DAL 0

  6. 3rd·19:02

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    COL 2·DAL 0

  7. 3rd·19:02

    Nathan MacKinnon Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (58), Josh Manson (26)

    · ·

    COL 2·DAL 0

  8. 3rd·18:57

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot Wide Left

    COL 1·DAL 0

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Wyatt Johnston shot blocked by Josh Manson

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  10. 3rd·18:53

    Jason Robertson Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  11. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    COL 1·DAL 0

  12. 3rd·18:29

    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Devon Toews

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  13. 3rd·18:16

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left

    COL 1·DAL 0

  14. 3rd·17:44

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  15. 3rd·17:44

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 1·DAL 0

  16. 3rd·17:42

    Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  17. 3rd·17:19

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  18. 3rd·17:19

    Puck in Netting

    COL 1·DAL 0

  19. 3rd·17:17

    Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  20. 3rd·16:23

    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  21. 3rd·15:58

    Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  22. 3rd·15:52

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  23. 3rd·15:52

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 1·DAL 0

  24. 3rd·15:50

    Arttu Hyry Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  25. 3rd·15:38

    Martin Necas hit Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  26. 3rd·15:35

    Arttu Hyry Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  27. 3rd·15:04

    Artturi Lehkonen Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  28. 3rd·14:47

    Artturi Lehkonen shot blocked by Esa Lindell

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

  29. 3rd·14:12

    Takeaway by Josh Manson

    COL 1·DAL 0

  30. 3rd·13:32

    Gabriel Landeskog hit Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    COL 1·DAL 0

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

22

Shots

17

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

22

11

Blocks

12

16

Giveaways

11

8

Takeaways

1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -120/DAL +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR