Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

COL

50-15-10

DAL

45-20-12

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -120

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Arttu Hyry

RW · #25

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:49
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	10:15
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:52
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	13:32
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:41
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:17
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	18:30
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:47
M. NecasC · #88	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	21:19
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	1	3	0	2	2	21:38
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:43
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:57
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:16
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	20:41
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	1	3	3	2	0	22:52
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	21:07
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	2	0	1	1	0	23:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	17	0	17	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:35
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	14:24
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	12:01
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	19:51
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:23
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	9:19
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	16:43
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	9:54
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	22:08
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	21:45
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	24:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:56
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:24
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	23:51
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	19:10
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:43
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:53
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	21	1	20	.952	58:17

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 12

DAL5@

COL4

Mar 7

COL5@

DAL4

Mar 19

DAL2@

COL1

Apr 4

COL2@

DAL0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-12055%

DAL+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 64 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat DAL 2-0. M. Necas led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	0	0	2	2
DAL	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

COL won 1 · DAL won 0

COL

DAL

Play-by-play · 275 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·19:55
Mavrik Bourque hit Valeri Nichushkin
·
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·19:42
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·19:42
Off-side
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·19:02
Jack Drury faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·19:02
Nathan MacKinnon Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (58), Josh Manson (26)
· ·
COL 2·DAL 0
3rd·18:57
Martin Necas Wrist Shot Wide Left
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·18:54
Wyatt Johnston shot blocked by Josh Manson
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·18:53
Jason Robertson Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Martin Necas
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·18:29
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Devon Toews
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·18:16
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·17:44
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·17:44
Puck in Crowd
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·17:42
Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by Jack Drury
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·17:19
Jack Drury faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·17:19
Puck in Netting
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·17:17
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·16:23
Brett Kulak shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:58
Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:52
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:52
Goalie Stopped
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:50
Arttu Hyry Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:38
Martin Necas hit Mavrik Bourque
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:35
Arttu Hyry Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·15:04
Artturi Lehkonen Tip-In Wide Right
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·14:47
Artturi Lehkonen shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·14:12
Takeaway by Josh Manson
COL 1·DAL 0
3rd·13:32
Gabriel Landeskog hit Wyatt Johnston
·
COL 1·DAL 0

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -120/DAL +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 2–0.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Wyatt Johnston · DAL22:240.5644.9%53.2%22:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 44.9% CF · 53.2% xGF
Artturi Lehkonen · COL18:480.5565.8%66.4%18:48 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 65.8% CF · 66.4% xGF
Arttu Hyry · DAL10:180.4350.0%46.0%10:18 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 50.0% CF · 46.0% xGF
Sam Malinski · COL23:000.3566.0%69.0%23:00 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 66.0% CF · 69.0% xGF
Matt Duchene · DAL17:240.3454.5%62.5%17:24 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 54.5% CF · 62.5% xGF
Brock Nelson · COL21:420.3055.6%74.9%21:42 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 55.6% CF · 74.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Scott Wedgewood · COL17–01.000+1.6517–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.65 GSAx
Casey DeSmith · DAL20–1.952+0.6720–1 · .952 SV% · +0.67 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL