Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

33-31-12

CBJ

38-27-12

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesWPG wins series 2-0VegasCBJ -148

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Ivan Provorov

D · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:59
K. ConnorLW · #81	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	21:27
P. FordC · #25	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:53
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	2	3	4	1	0	19:45
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	11:55
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	11:30
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:50
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	15:49
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:40
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	2	2	1	1	0	2	22:39
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:49
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	17:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:08
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	22:08
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	9:24
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	25:23
N. PionkD · #4	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	23:56
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	25:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	16	1	15	.938	59:58

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. Aston-ReeseLW · #27	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	12:54
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:26
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	19:08
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:29
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:00
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	-1	3	1	2	0	18:19
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:50
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:14
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	16:50
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:05
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:14
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	9:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:38
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	18:05
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:53
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	27:42
I. ProvorovD · #9	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:29
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	27:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	26	2	24	.923	58:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG wins series 2-0

Nov 19

CBJ2@

WPG5

Apr 4

WPG2@

CBJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+12445%

CBJ-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat CBJ 2-1. K. Connor led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	1	1	2
CBJ	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

WPG won 2 · CBJ won 1

WPG

CBJ

Play-by-play · 257 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:54
Adam Fantilli Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:51
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:51
Timeout - Home
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:51
Mark Scheifele Tripping against Kirill Marchenko
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:25
Charlie Coyle Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:19
Giveaway by Mark Scheifele
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:11
Zach Werenski Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:04
Mason Marchment shot blocked by Alex Iafallo
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:01
Zach Aston-Reese hit Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Josh Morrissey
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:44
Denton Mateychuk Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:40
Mason Marchment shot blocked by Cole Koepke
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:37
Mason Marchment Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:35
Zach Werenski shot blocked by Mason Marchment
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:24
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:09
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:09
Off-side
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:01
Takeaway by Dylan DeMelo
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·14:34
Cole Perfetti Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:58
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:58
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:56
Neal Pionk Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:37
Mark Scheifele Tip-In Wide Right
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:30
Giveaway by Boone Jenner
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:19
Cole Koepke shot blocked by Boone Jenner
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·13:08
Cole Koepke Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·12:39
Boone Jenner Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1
3rd·12:35
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 2·CBJ 1

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +124/CBJ -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 2–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Boone Jenner · CBJ18:300.8361.0%70.3%18:30 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 61.0% CF · 70.3% xGF
Adam Fantilli · CBJ19:120.4347.1%58.9%19:12 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 47.1% CF · 58.9% xGF
Alex Iafallo · WPG20:000.2851.7%45.0%20:00 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 51.7% CF · 45.0% xGF
Kyle Connor · WPG21:420.2758.1%55.9%21:42 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 58.1% CF · 55.9% xGF
Adam Lowry · WPG13:540.2455.0%54.9%13:54 TOI · 0.24 iXG · 55.0% CF · 54.9% xGF
Gabriel Vilardi · WPG17:480.2372.4%74.6%17:48 TOI · 0.23 iXG · 72.4% CF · 74.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Connor Hellebuyck · WPG15–1.938+0.7015–1 · .938 SV% · +0.70 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ24–2.923+0.3224–2 · .923 SV% · +0.32 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.1%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.1%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.1%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsColumbus Blue Jackets

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