Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

MIN

43-21-12

OTT

39-27-10

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasOTT -130

MIN · top performer

Ryan Hartman

RW · #38

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:16
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	1	0	3	1	1	2	17:50
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:28
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	12:09
R. HartmanRW · #38	2	0	2	3	0	0	2	14:28
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:16
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	1	2	2	1	2	0	17:56
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	13:16
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	13:00
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	1	1	7	0	0	15:32
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	13:28
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	15:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	2	0	2	1	2	14:08
J. BrodinD · #25	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:00
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	24:05
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	26:01
J. MiddletonD · #5	1	0	1	1	0	2	10	20:58
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	34	1	33	.971	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	17:29
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:05
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	5	1	10	13:05
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	16:30
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	12:35
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	12:39
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:34
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	6	3	0	2	15:19
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:39
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	16:31
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-1	7	1	0	0	16:59
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	9:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrottyD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:19
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	17:39
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	-1	3	0	3	0	24:55
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	22:51
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	15:21
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	21:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Dec 13

OTT2@

MIN3

Apr 4

MIN4@

OTT1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+11048%

OTT-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 64 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat OTT 4-1. R. Hartman led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	1	1	4
OTT	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · OTT won 0

MIN

OTT

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
Nick Cousins Misconduct
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
Jake Middleton Misconduct
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:48
Giveaway by Warren Foegele
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:29
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:29
Icing
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·19:20
Takeaway by Marcus Foligno
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:54
Shane Pinto Tip-In Short
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·18:08
Vladimir Tarasenko hit Nikolas Matinpalo
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:31
Nikolas Matinpalo Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·17:01
Brock Faber Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·16:43
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·16:43
Drake Batherson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Lassi Thomson (2), Tim Stützle (45)
· ·
MIN 4·OTT 1
3rd·16:40
Lassi Thomson shot blocked by Drake Batherson
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:38
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:38
Puck in Netting
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:36
Ridly Greig shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:20
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:20
Goalie Stopped
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:18
Shane Pinto Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·16:04
Michael Amadio Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·15:21
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·15:21
Off-side
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·15:12
Giveaway by Lars Eller
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·15:07
Warren Foegele Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·14:14
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·14:14
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·13:51
Takeaway by Jake Sanderson
MIN 4·OTT 0
3rd·13:16
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
MIN 4·OTT 0

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +110/OTT -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 4–1.

MIN +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ridly Greig · OTT15:240.4867.5%64.3%15:24 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 67.5% CF · 64.3% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN14:300.4851.4%54.8%14:30 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 51.4% CF · 54.8% xGF
Joel Eriksson Ek · MIN17:540.4654.8%74.1%17:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 54.8% CF · 74.1% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA17:060.4573.8%70.2%17:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 73.8% CF · 70.2% xGF
Shane Pinto · OTT19:540.4250.0%47.9%19:54 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 50.0% CF · 47.9% xGF
Kirill Kaprizov · MIN18:000.3557.1%61.5%18:00 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 57.1% CF · 61.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jesper Wallstedt · MIN33–1.971+1.5233–1 · .971 SV% · +1.52 GSAx
Linus Ullmark · OTT19–4.826-1.7419–4 · .826 SV% · -1.74 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.8%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.8%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildOttawa Senators

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