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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

43-21-12

41
OTT

OTT

39-27-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasOTT -130

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 4–1.

MIN +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Hartman

Ryan Hartman

RW · #38

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Drake Batherson

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
MIN43-21-12OTT39-27-10
MIN

MIN

43-21-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

39-27-10

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

PIM

14

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Dec 13OTTOTT2@MINMIN3
Apr 4MINMIN4@OTTOTT1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+11048%
OTTOTT-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat OTT 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MIN2114
OTT0011

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · OTT won 0

2
0

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

MIN
OTT

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Nick Cousins Misconduct

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  4. 3rd·20:00

    Jake Middleton Misconduct

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  5. 3rd·19:48

    Giveaway by Warren Foegele

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  6. 3rd·19:29

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  7. 3rd·19:29

    Icing

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  8. 3rd·19:20

    Takeaway by Marcus Foligno

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Shane Pinto Tip-In Short

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  10. 3rd·18:08

    Vladimir Tarasenko hit Nikolas Matinpalo

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  11. 3rd·17:31

    Nikolas Matinpalo Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  12. 3rd·17:01

    Brock Faber Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  13. 3rd·16:43

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  14. 3rd·16:43

    Drake Batherson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Lassi Thomson (2), Tim Stützle (45)

    · ·

    MIN 4·OTT 1

  15. 3rd·16:40

    Lassi Thomson shot blocked by Drake Batherson

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  16. 3rd·16:38

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  17. 3rd·16:38

    Puck in Netting

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  18. 3rd·16:36

    Ridly Greig shot blocked by Quinn Hughes

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  19. 3rd·16:20

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  20. 3rd·16:20

    Goalie Stopped

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  21. 3rd·16:18

    Shane Pinto Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  22. 3rd·16:04

    Michael Amadio Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  23. 3rd·15:21

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  24. 3rd·15:21

    Off-side

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  25. 3rd·15:12

    Giveaway by Lars Eller

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  26. 3rd·15:07

    Warren Foegele Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  27. 3rd·14:14

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  28. 3rd·14:14

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  29. 3rd·13:51

    Takeaway by Jake Sanderson

    MIN 4·OTT 0

  30. 3rd·13:16

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    MIN 4·OTT 0

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

23

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

0.0

16

PIM

14

26

Faceoffs W

34

13

Blocks

11

11

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +110/OTT -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.296
  • Quinn HughesMIN · D
    BURSTS1895
  • Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C
    SHOT MPH92.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR