Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CHI

CHI

28-35-14

SEA

32-32-11

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-1VegasSEA -170

CHI · top performer

Ilya Mikheyev

RW · #95

2Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jaden Schwartz

C · #17

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	2	0	2	0	1	0	17:41
T. BertuzziLW · #59	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	18:46
S. BoisvertC · #12	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	9:18
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	9:24
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	-1	6	0	0	0	15:12
A. FrondellC · #16	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	16:50
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	16:17
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:12
I. MikheyevRW · #95	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	17:14
F. NazarC · #91	0	1	-1	1	1	0	2	18:57
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	9:58
T. TeravainenC · #86	1	0	0	4	0	2	0	20:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	20:09
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	15:42
W. KaiserD · #44	0	2	-1	1	1	1	0	20:41
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	11:20
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	21:04
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	22:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	27	2	25	.926	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	20:49
B. CattonC · #27	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	11:59
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	18:57
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:04
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:05
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:39
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	18:30
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	15:57
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:26
J. SchwartzC · #17	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	14:08
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:36
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	14:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	19:25
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	16:51
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-1	4	2	3	2	22:02
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	17:02
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	25:03
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	2	3	1	1	0	16:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	30	3	27	.900	58:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA wins series 2-1

Nov 4

CHI1@

SEA3

Nov 21

SEA3@

CHI2

Apr 5

CHI4@

SEA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+14241%

SEA-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 85 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat SEA 4-2. I. Mikheyev led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	0	2	2	4
SEA	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · SEA won 0

CHI

SEA

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·19:55
Ryker Evans Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·19:44
Ethan Del Mastro shot blocked by Brandon Montour
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·19:31
Kaapo Kakko shot blocked by Alex Vlasic
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·19:08
Takeaway by Kaapo Kakko
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·19:06
Alex Vlasic shot blocked by Frank Nazar
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·19:03
Brandon Montour Slap Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·18:58
Frank Nazar hit Kaapo Kakko
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·18:48
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·18:48
Ilya Mikheyev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (10), Connor Bedard (41)
· ·
CHI 4·SEA 2
3rd·18:41
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:41
Icing
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:25
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:25
Off-side
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:11
Takeaway by Bobby McMann
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:07
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:07
Off-side
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:39
Eeli Tolvanen hit Frank Nazar
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:01
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:01
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·16:57
Ryan Donato shot blocked by Adam Larsson
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·15:54
Anton Frondell hit Jordan Eberle
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·15:50
Brandon Montour Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·15:47
Landon Slaggert hit Matty Beniers
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·15:17
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Anton Frondell
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·15:17
Icing
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·15:09
Matty Beniers shot blocked by Wyatt Kaiser
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·14:18
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
CHI 3·SEA 2
3rd·14:18
Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (10), Jaden Schwartz (12)
· ·
CHI 3·SEA 2

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 6.5·CHI +142/SEA -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 4–2.

CHI +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(SEA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.1%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.1%
P(SEA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL