NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

BOS

43-26-8

48-22-6

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesTB leads series 3-0VegasTB -175

BOS · top performer

Viktor Arvidsson

LW · #71

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	1	-2	3	0	1	0	15:57
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	12:00
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	17:29
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	11:28
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:01
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:57
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:04
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-2	2	1	3	0	16:16
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	19:04
C. MittelstadtC · #11	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:18
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:43
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	16:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:37
J. HarrisD · #43	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:14
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:01
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	24:19
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:52
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	22	2	20	.909	59:16

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	10:19
M. ChaffeeRW · #41	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:39
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	17:01
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	14:46
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:14
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	17:04
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	21:05
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:20
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:58
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	4	4	0	0	9:08
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:54
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	17:27
C. D'AstousD · #51	1	0	1	3	2	0	4	19:13
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	21:25
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	17:08
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:42
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	0	0	1	1	3	2	20:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB leads series 3-0

Oct 13

TB4@

BOS3

Feb 1

BOS5@

TB6

Apr 4

BOS1@

TB3today

Apr 11

TB2@

BOS1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+14541%

TB-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 65 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat BOS 3-1. N. Kucherov led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	0	1	0	1
TB	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · TB won 1

BOS

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 1·TB 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 1·TB 3
3rd·18:40
Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·TB 3
3rd·18:27
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 1·TB 3
3rd·18:27
Nikita Kucherov Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (48), Ryan McDonagh (12)
· ·
BOS 1·TB 3
3rd·18:08
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:53
Corey Perry shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:43
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:43
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:05
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:05
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:00
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·17:00
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·16:36
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·16:18
Giveaway by David Pastrnak
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·16:08
Hampus Lindholm Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·15:48
Zemgus Girgensons hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·15:47
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·15:43
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·15:32
Zemgus Girgensons Batted Wide Left
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·15:17
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·15:17
Off-side
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:59
Elias Lindholm shot blocked by Brayden Point
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:58
Elias Lindholm Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:51
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Brayden Point
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:51
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:43
Elias Lindholm hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:29
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Brayden Point
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:29
Darren Raddysh Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (21)
·
BOS 1·TB 2
3rd·14:03
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
BOS 1·TB 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +145/TB -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Boston Bruins, 3–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Viktor Arvidsson · BOS16:120.7470.6%78.0%16:12 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 70.6% CF · 78.0% xGF
Nick Paul · TBL9:120.5472.2%67.0%9:12 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 72.2% CF · 67.0% xGF
Fraser Minten · BOS19:060.4552.2%57.5%19:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 52.2% CF · 57.5% xGF
Pontus Holmberg · TBL13:060.3243.5%48.9%13:06 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 43.5% CF · 48.9% xGF
Elias Lindholm · BOS16:240.3055.9%57.1%16:24 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 55.9% CF · 57.1% xGF
Charlie McAvoy · BOS24:360.2860.5%60.1%24:36 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 60.5% CF · 60.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL21–1.955+1.2021–1 · .955 SV% · +1.20 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS20–2.909+0.2920–2 · .909 SV% · +0.29 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
61.7%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.7%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.7%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Boston BruinsTampa Bay Lightning

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