Mar 24, 26sim 98
303
20(H)6
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2TB
BOS
43-26-8
13
TB
48-22-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ampa Bay Lightning held off Boston Bruins, 3–1.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BOS · top performer
Viktor Arvidsson
LW · #71
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
TB · top performer
Oliver Bjorkstrand
RW · #22
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
BOS43-26-8
13
TB48-22-6
BOS43-26-8TB48-22-6
BOS
43-26-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
TB
48-22-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
8
Season series
TB leads series 3-0
Oct 13TB4@BOS3
TB4@BOS3Feb 1BOS5@TB6
BOS5@TB6Apr 4BOS1@TB3today
BOS1@TB3todayApr 11TB2@BOS1
TB2@BOS1Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
BOS+14541%TB-17564%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 14 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
TB beat BOS 3-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Period scoring
BOS won 1 · TB won 1
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
3
3
BOS
TB
Play-by-play · 286 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 1·TB 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 1·TB 3
- 3rd·18:40
Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·TB 3
- 3rd·18:27
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 1·TB 3
- 3rd·18:27
Nikita Kucherov Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (48), Ryan McDonagh (12)
· ·
BOS 1·TB 3
- 3rd·18:08
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:53
Corey Perry shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:43
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:43
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:05
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:05
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:00
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·17:00
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·16:36
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·16:18
Giveaway by David Pastrnak
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·16:08
Hampus Lindholm Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:48
Zemgus Girgensons hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:47
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:43
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:32
Zemgus Girgensons Batted Wide Left
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:17
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:17
Off-side
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:59
Elias Lindholm shot blocked by Brayden Point
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:58
Elias Lindholm Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:51
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Brayden Point
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:51
Icing
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:43
Elias Lindholm hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:29
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Brayden Point
· ·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:29
Darren Raddysh Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (21)
·
BOS 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:03
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
BOS 1·TB 1
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
TB
Home
22
Shots
23
0.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
8
40
Faceoffs W
18
14
Blocks
13
15
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
3
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +145/TB -175
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · CSKATE MPH23.092
Morgan GeekieBOS · CSHOT MPH88.989
Jonathan AspirotBOS · DSHOT MPH94.081
Tanner JeannotBOS · LWSHOT MPH86.679
Elias LindholmBOS · CSHOT MPH86.478
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 123 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Nikita KucherovTB3.5± 2.3high
- David PastrnakBOS3.2± 2.2high
- Brandon HagelTB3.2± 1.4high
Goals
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.6± 0.9high
- Brandon HagelTB0.6± 0.8high
- Jake GuentzelTB0.4± 0.5high
Points
- David PastrnakBOS1.1± 1.1high
- Nikita KucherovTB1.1± 0.9high
- Brandon HagelTB1.0± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands